Nordic & Swiss

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May)

Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we still think that the Norges Bank, which is worried about rising house prices, will start raising interest rates in Q3.

10 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (May)

Inflation in Switzerland is likely to keep climbing over the coming months, but we still expect it to fall back next year. So the SNB looks set to keep interest rates on hold for a very long time.

7 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May)

Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2.

1 June 2021
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Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The energy-driven increase in Swedish inflation in April is likely to be temporary and will not trouble the Riksbank (even as bicycle prices keep on climbing). That said, house price inflation is likely to be a tougher nut to crack, and might cause the Bank to start to shrink the balance sheet next year.

12 May 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway GDP (Q1 2021)

The weaker-than-expected 1.0% q/q decrease in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy slipped behind its Swedish counterpart at the start of the year, and suggests that it is now unlikely to surpass its pre-virus peak until Q3. However, we doubt that this will deter the Norges Bank from being the first advanced central bank to start to raise interest rates, later this year.

12 May 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Exchange rate effects pulled Norway’s core inflation rate back down to target in April, and will continue to exert downward pressure over the coming months. However, pockets of home-grown price pressures are starting to emerge, and the Norges Bank is on track to start raising interest rates, probably in Q3.

10 May 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Apr.) & Sweden Activity Data (Mar.)

April marked the end of the recent bout of deflation in Switzerland, and the headline rate is likely to climb higher over the coming months. Meanwhile, further confirmation that the Swedish economy is firing on all cylinders will test the resolve of the Riksbank to stick to its dovish guns.

5 May 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden GDP Indicator (Q1) & ETI (Apr.)

The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish GDP in Q1 means that the economy has already largely regained its pre-virus peak. Meanwhile, the jump in the ETI in April suggests that the economy is firing on all cylinders, and the risks to our near-term forecasts are firmly to the upside.

29 April 2021
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