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Nordic & Swiss Economics

22 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden sidestepping a second wave
22 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table
18 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers to keep their powder dry next week
17 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to hold again; Norges Bank set for hawkish shift
15 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to keep policy settings on hold next week
11 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Chart Book Norway’s fading rebound a warning sign for others
11 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank unlikely to tighten anytime soon
10 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.)
8 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Jul.)
4 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shrugs off krona surge
3 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.)
1 September, 2020 in Nordic & Swiss Economics › Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

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Key Calls

The Nordic economies fared better than most European countries in the first half, and given that activity appears to have gathered pace over the summer, our GDP growth forecasts are generally above consensus. The Swiss economy has been hit a bit harder, but signs of a broadening recovery in the manufacturing sector bode well, and the economy will perform much better than the worst-hit southern European economies this year. That said, inflation pressures are likely to stay almost entirely absent in Switzerland and the SNB is set to leave interest rates on hold throughout our forecast horizon, and probably well beyond that. Meanwhile, very low resource utilisation will ensure that underlying price pressures remain frustratingly low in Sweden too; in contrast to the consensus, we expect the Riksbank to eventually cut its repo rate back below zero, possibly in early-2021 if inflation expectations start to slide.

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Nordic & Swiss Economics