My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Middle East

Middle East Economics Update

Middle East Economics Update

Saudi set for bumper GDP growth this year

Saudi Arabia’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry on over the rest of this year. The combination of rising oil output and the increasing likelihood of looser fiscal policy underpin our above-consensus forecast for the Kingdom’s economy to grow by 10% in 2022.

18 May 2022

Middle East Economics Update

Saudi inflation to stay in check, risks lie to downside

Headline inflation in Saudi Arabia rose to 2.3% y/y in April and we think that it will continue to accelerate over the coming months. Unlike in other parts of the emerging world, however, inflation will not surge to multi-year highs and, if anything, the risks to our inflation forecast lie to the downside.

18 May 2022

Middle East Economics Update

What Sheikh Khalifa’s passing means for the UAE

The passing of the UAE’s President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nayhan today is unlikely to alter the economic outlook with GDP set to grow rapidly amid stronger oil output and looser fiscal policy. That said, the next president will face several challenges, including the country’s relationship with OPEC+, ensuring the UAE remains the region’s leading financial and logistics hub and dealing with Dubai’s debts.

13 May 2022
More Publications

Middle East Economics Update

Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation

The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal exchange rate (as they appear to have done since the move), prompting a fresh build up of external imbalances and the need for further (disorderly) falls in the currency down the line.

Middle East Economics Update

Saudi economy on the up

Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has strengthened in recent months and, with oil output set to be raised further, the economy will record its fastest rate of growth in over a decade in 2022.

Middle East Economics Update

Egyptian inflation and rates to rise much further

Egyptian inflation rose to a near-three year high in March and will continue to pick up on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and last month’s devaluation. We now think interest rates will be hiked by a further 350bp, to 12.75%, by end-2022. This is more tightening than the consensus currently expects.

Middle East Economics Update

Lebanon unlikely to meet IMF demands

Lebanon has secured a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but we think that it is highly unlikely that policymakers will push through the long list of reforms that are needed to unlock that financing. An end to the country’s crisis is still nowhere in sight.

Middle East Economics Update

Tunisia heading toward default

Political developments and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have compounded concerns over Tunisia’s public finances and cemented our view that the government will default sooner rather than later. Emerging Markets Drop-In (7th April, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join us on Thursday for our next monthly Emerging Markets briefing where our economists will discuss how the Ukraine war’s spillovers are helping and hurting EMs, and the impact of global central bank tightening. Register here

1 to 8 of 341 publications
See More ↓