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Middle East

Middle East Data Response

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May)

Saudi inflation edged down to 2.2% y/y in May as food and transport inflation slowed last month, and, while we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the coming months, it is unlikely to reach the pace seen in other parts of the emerging world.

15 June 2022

Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (May)

Egypt’s headline inflation rose to a three-year high of 13.5% y/y in May as the lagged effects from the devaluation of the pound in March continued to push up non-food inflation. Inflation will continue to rise over the rest of this year and prompt the central bank (CBE) to hike interest rates further – we have pencilled in 150bp of hikes by the end of this year, to 12.75%, which is more than the consensus expects.

9 June 2022

Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-three year high of 13.1% y/y in April on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and effects of the devaluation of the pound. Inflation will continue to rise over the rest of this year and prompt the central bank (CBE) to hike interest rates further – we have pencilled in 350bp of hikes by the end of this year, to 12.75%, which is more than the consensus expects. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

10 May 2022
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Middle East Data Response

S&P Global PMIs (Apr.)

April’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a loss of momentum at the start of Q2 but continued to highlight the growing divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies as a result of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by a robust 2.2% q/q in the first quarter of the year, which translated into year-on-year growth of 9.6% – the fastest pace recorded since 2011. With oil production to increase further and the strong likelihood of looser fiscal policy, we think that the Kingdom’s economy will experience grow by around 10% this year, which is well above consensus expectations. EM Drop-In (5th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join Shilan Shah for our latest monthly session on the big macro and markets stories in EMs. This month, Shilan and the team will be talking Russian gas, FX weakness and surging food prices. Register now

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Saudi inflation rose to 2.0% y/y in March on the back of stronger food and transport prices, and we think it will continue to strengthen over the coming months and peak at around 2.5% y/y in Q3.

14 April 2022

Middle East Data Response

Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.)

March’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag but further highlighted that the spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. Emerging Markets Drop-In (7th April, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join us on Thursday for our next monthly Emerging Markets briefing where our economists will discuss how the Ukraine war’s spillovers are helping and hurting EMs, and the impact of global central bank tightening. Register here

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.)

Saudi inflation rose to 1.6% y/y in February, and we think that it will continue to strengthen over the coming months on the back of increasing food prices, peaking at around 2.5% y/y in Q3.

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