Precious Metals Update

Precious Metals Update

Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading

The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and that other indicators point to a further softening in demand from commodity end-users, we are sceptical. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Overview Update to clients of our Metals Service.

7 December 2021

Precious Metals Update

Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight

We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on demand just adds weight to our view. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Overview Update to clients of all our Commodities services.  

29 November 2021

Precious Metals Update

Palladium outlook brightest once auto sector rebounds

The well-documented shortages of semiconductors have slammed the brakes on global vehicle production. As a result, the near-term prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) demand in autocatalysts have been dented. It is only once a meaningful recovery in auto output takes hold that demand for PGMs will pick up once again. But the likelihood is that semiconductor shortages rumble on for a while longer yet.

25 October 2021
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Precious Metals Update

Dim outlook for the silver price

We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of years.

Precious Metals Update

China PMIs point to weaker metals demand

China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices.

Precious Metals Update

We still think gold will lose its shine

After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb.

Precious Metals Update

Chip shortages to dent auto industry PGM demand

The recent disruption to global auto production stemming from ongoing semiconductor microchip shortages poses a downside risk to our price forecasts for platinum and palladium. In this Update, we map out the potential impact on demand for the metals from three different scenarios.

Precious Metals Update

Strong physical demand won’t stop gold prices falling

Recent data have highlighted the strength of the rebound in physical demand for gold, especially in India and China. But we don’t think this poses much of a risk to our forecast for the gold price to fall this year.

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