Precious Metals Update

Precious Metals Update

Dim outlook for the silver price

We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of years.

7 October 2021

Precious Metals Update

China PMIs point to weaker metals demand

China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices.

2 August 2021

Precious Metals Update

We still think gold will lose its shine

After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb.

30 June 2021
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Precious Metals Update

Chip shortages to dent auto industry PGM demand

The recent disruption to global auto production stemming from ongoing semiconductor microchip shortages poses a downside risk to our price forecasts for platinum and palladium. In this Update, we map out the potential impact on demand for the metals from three different scenarios.

Precious Metals Update

Strong physical demand won’t stop gold prices falling

Recent data have highlighted the strength of the rebound in physical demand for gold, especially in India and China. But we don’t think this poses much of a risk to our forecast for the gold price to fall this year.

Precious Metals Update

Real yields and gold

The recent drop in the price of gold below $1,700/oz. has illustrated its greater sensitivity to US long- than short-dated real yields. Although the price has nudged back up above this level at the time of writing, we expect it to fall back to an even lower level as the US real yield curve steepens more. In view of wider interest, we are also sending this publication to clients subscribed to our Metals Service.

Precious Metals Update

Gold unlikely to fall much further

While we are revising down our forecast, we don’t expect the price of gold to fall that much further this year. In our view, the recent decline in investment demand is unlikely to continue for long. What’s more, we think the ongoing recovery in physical demand will prevent the gold price falling too far.

Precious Metals Update

Just another spell of volatility for the silver price

Many media reports have linked silver’s recent price volatility to last week’s targeted buying of a handful of small US equities by retail investors. But we reckon that it marks just another bout of silver’s well-known price volatility.

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