Copper’s “price premium” to grow

In this Metals Watch, we introduce our measure of the “fundamental” copper price. A key takeaway is that, while we expect the traded price of copper to recover some lost ground by year-end, there is good reason to expect it to fall further before then.
Kieran Clancy Assistant Commodities Economist
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Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Jun.)

Growth in global steel production remained in double digits in June, but this largely reflects the low base for comparison from last year. Meanwhile, government-imposed environmental controls in China weighed heavily on steel production there, and renewed efforts to clamp down on excess steelmaking capacity in recent weeks suggest it will fall further in the months ahead.

23 July 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Jun.)

Global aluminium output growth softened in June, largely due to power cuts in China’s key aluminium-producing province of Yunnan. But these curbs have started to be relaxed in recent weeks, which suggests that growth in global aluminium production will start to accelerate again before long.

20 July 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Beginning of the end for copper rally

After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic growth in China and a greater availability of both ore and scrap supply tips the refined market into a surplus.

16 July 2021

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Energy Update

Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon

After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which should run its course over the coming months. That said, the outlook for spot Asia LNG prices further ahead remains bright.

9 June 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks declined for the fifth week in a row, owing to the robust economic recovery and a further increase in inputs to refineries. With demand set to rise further, and few signs of a rebound in domestic production, crude stocks should continue to fall in the weeks ahead.

3 June 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Last week’s decline in US crude stocks adds to evidence that the oil market is getting tighter. This supports our view that oil prices have further to rise in the months ahead, before higher OPEC+ supply brings the market closer to balance and sends prices lower.

26 May 2021
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