Metals Watch

Metals Watch

Higher inflation won’t stop the gold price from falling

In this Metals Watch, we revisit the theoretical relationship between the price of gold and inflation, before assessing how this relationship has held up throughout history. The key takeaway is that although gold is an effective long-term hedge against inflation, its effectiveness at shorter horizons depends on how long-term expectations for inflation and monetary policy evolve. We think that long-dated real yields will rise somewhat over the next few years, which should be enough to pull down the gold price.

17 November 2021

Metals Watch

How the American Jobs Plan could affect commodities

In this Commodities Watch, we take a first look at some of the most important features of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure package, known as the American Jobs Plan, from a commodities perspective. The upshot is that even if it is passed in its current form (which we think is unlikely), we doubt there would be much of an impact on prices in the near term. Further ahead, we think the effects of the Plan would only really be felt in a handful of commodity markets, including coal, natural gas, cobalt and nickel.

14 May 2021

Metals Watch

The outlook is brighter for palladium than platinum

In this Metals Watch, we examine the outlook for supply and demand of platinum and palladium to determine the direction of their prices over the next couple of years.

24 March 2021
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Metals Watch

Assessing the risk of a ‘second wave’ of supply loss

In this Metals Watch, we examine the risks to supply posed by high rates of infection among mine workers. We start by looking at what has happened to output at mines so far this year, before assessing where the risks to production are greatest in the months ahead. We conclude by considering the implications for our price forecasts.

10 July 2020

Metals Watch

Picking apart the silver price

Silver is often described as having a strong price correlation with the business cycle, owing to its numerous industrial applications. Others cite its safe-haven appeal. In this Metals Watch, we attempt to identify the key drivers of the silver price.

Metals Watch

Are aluminium stocks set for a re-run of the GFC?

In this Metals Watch, we take a closer look at whether the global aluminium market is set for a re-run of the global financial crisis (GFC), when a surge in exchange stocks depressed prices for several years after the crisis. Although there are key differences in 2020, we believe aluminium stocks are once again likely to increase and remain high for years to come.

Metals Watch

Copper’s “price premium” to grow

In this Metals Watch, we introduce our measure of the “fundamental” copper price. A key takeaway is that, while we expect the traded price of copper to recover some lost ground by year-end, there is good reason to expect it to fall further before then.

Metals Watch

Palladium to outperform platinum if AMCU strike

There is a significant risk that the ongoing wage negotiations between platinum group metals (PGM) producers in South Africa and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) will lead to prolonged strikes at PGM mines. In this Metals Watch, we analyse the potential impact of such strikes on the prices of the two main PGM metals, platinum and palladium.

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