Metals

Metals Data Response

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Oct.)

Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but weaker domestic demand will act as a disincentive.

23 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)

October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output will remain high over the rest of this year, incentivised by the high price. However, we expect that the slowing of the Chinese construction sector will weigh on demand and prices in 2022.

22 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Sep.)

Global steel output plunged in September primarily owing to a dramatic decline in China’s production. We suspect that China’s output will remain low for some months yet, which will act as a floor under already-high prices.

26 October 2021
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Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Sep.)

Slower growth in aluminium output in September was probably linked to surging power prices. The combination of constrained output and soaring production costs will support aluminium prices in the near term and we have raised our end-2021 aluminium price forecast.

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Aug.)

Despite high prices, global steel output contracted in August. And given that the authorities in China are proactively encouraging lower output there, further falls in the coming months appear likely.

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Aug.)

August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think that any fall in supply will be compensated by weaker demand, causing prices to fall by end-2021.

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Jul.)

A slump in China’s steel production in July led to a dramatic slowdown in growth in global steel output. While China’s production may stabilise or rebound a little in the coming months, it appears unlikely to return to the levels seen in the first half of this year.

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Jul.)

Aluminium prices have recently been supported by reports that government-imposed power rationing has weighed on production in China, but there is little evidence of this in the latest data for July. This supports our view that constraints on the supply side won’t be enough to offset weaker demand in the months ahead, which underpins our forecast that aluminium prices will end the year lower.

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