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Industrial Metals Update

Industrial Metals Update

Weaker demand to enable stocks to build

Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen so far this year as high power costs have choked the supply of refined metals. Yet, we expect stocks to build as a weaker economic outlook for key metal consuming regions will weigh on demand, and easing energy prices should enable supply to recover slightly.

13 May 2022

Industrial Metals Update

Weaker electronics demand will weigh on tin

We expect weaker electronics demand and a recovery in supply from South-East Asia to weigh on the tin price, dragging it lower by end-year to $34,000 per tonne from around $41,000 currently.

6 May 2022

Industrial Metals Update

China’s iron ore consumption peaked

Iron ore prices have rocketed by close to 30% since the start of 2022 on supply fears. Yet, we expect cooler economic activity in China to weigh on iron ore demand, causing prices to fall by end-year.

21 April 2022
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Industrial Metals Update

China commodity imports pointing to weaker demand

The latest trade data out of China suggest that recent restrictions imposed to contain the surge in new cases of COVID-19 are hitting commodity demand hard. And we think it will remain weak in the months ahead as activity in the commodity-intensive construction sector softens further.

Industrial Metals Update

Supply fears to give way to weaker demand for copper

Supply fears stemming from the war in Ukraine and risks to mine output in Latin America have pushed up the copper price. But we expect a recovery in supply and ongoing weakness in Chinese demand to send prices lower by year-end.

Industrial Metals Update

China demand will still be key in driving metal prices

The war in Ukraine and high energy prices will keep industrial metal prices elevated for now. But once supply fears ease, the weakness in China’s demand will be exposed and will weigh on prices.

Industrial Metals Update

High volatility to persist while war rages on

Commodity prices are as volatile as they’ve ever been. We don’t think volatility will ease until the war in Ukraine ends, because only then will we know the true extent of the Russia-related supply shock.

Industrial Metals Update

Lessons from the 1970s for commodity markets

The experience of the 1970s suggests that the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on commodity prices will reshape commodity markets for years to come. Most immediately, elevated prices are likely to lead to some degree of demand destruction. And further ahead, a renewed focus on energy independence in Europe and elsewhere will have longer-lived consequences for commodity demand and supply.

29 March 2022
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