Capital Daily

A stock market rebound makes little sense if a recession is nigh

The proximate cause of this week’s tentative rebound in the S&P 500 appears to have been a pull-back in Treasury yields. Yet their retreat has reflected concerns that the Fed will drive the economy into the ground in an effort to bring down inflation. Accordingly, it’s hard to envisage the stock market recovering much more ground if those worries continue to grow.

24 June 2022

Commodities Update

The outlook for staple agricultural commodities

We think the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back in the coming months, but most will remain historically high owing to tight supply, concerns about future supply and high energy prices.

24 June 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Calling the top for US commercial real estate

Indicators that include a recently released investor sentiment survey and a sharp fall in REIT prices since the start of the year support our updated view that capital values will go into reverse in H2. In total, our latest forecasts call for a 6%-8% correction at the all-property level over the next couple of years, which would be a little less than implied by the falls that we have seen so far in US REITS.

24 June 2022

Latin America Economics Weekly

Petro reaction, Lula’s plans, hawkish central banks

Gustavo Petro’s win in Colombia’s presidential election has caused tremors in the country’s financial markets. While the appointment of a centrist finance minister could help to settle investors’ nerves, the global backdrop is turning increasingly unfavourable. In Brazil, Lula, the front-runner in the race for the presidency, unveiled policy plans that will, likewise, probably unnerve investors around the election there in October. Finally, the week was marked by further hawkish noises from central banks in the region. We’ve revised up our interest rate profile in Brazil and the upside risks to our interest rate forecast in Mexico are growing.

24 June 2022

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Non-energy prices only have so much more to fall

Most commodity prices fell this week as demand concerns picked up due to ongoing monetary policy tightening by major central banks. Speaking to the US Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underlined his “strong commitment” to bringing current multi-decade high inflation back to target. A notable exception to this trend, however, was a rise in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia owing to fears that Russia could potentially further cut gas supply to Europe. If demand concerns intensify, further falls in commodity prices could be in store. However, we don’t think there is a great deal of room for prices to fall in the near term for a couple of reasons. First, energy prices will remain historically high due to supply constraints, putting a floor under other commodity prices. Second, stocks of many commodities, particularly industrial metals, are low, which will further underpin prices. And finally, China’s economy should recover somewhat in the second half of this year. Looking ahead, G7 leaders begin a three-day meeting on Sunday, during which they will discuss sanctions against Russia and how to support the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine. Any new sanctions coming out of that meeting could affect commodity prices. Data-wise, the EIA should get back to releasing weekly oil inventory data next Wednesday, after missing this week’s release due to technical reasons.

24 June 2022

US Housing Market Update

The anatomy of a housing market downturn

Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the housing downturn and identify turning points. With most indicators already softening in both countries, it is just a matter of time before house prices fall. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this US Housing Update to clients of our UK Housing Service.

24 June 2022

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

We think the dollar rally has paused, not ended

Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we suspect the greenback may struggle to make new highs in the near-term, we think the backdrop will remain favourable for the dollar over the coming quarters. If, as we anticipate, the US (and global) economy slows, but avoids recession, we think the US will remain relatively well-placed to weather tighter financial conditions. And if downside risks to economic activity materialise, then the dollar would probably benefit from “safe-haven” demand, as has been the case for much of this year. Asia Drop-In (30^th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (May)

New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home sales are not immune to higher financing costs and survey measures point to a fall in sales over the next couple of months. While a healthier inventory means the new home market will outperform existing sales, we still expect a fall in sales to around 630,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 June 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles

24 June 2022

Global Markets Update

Answering your questions on our market forecasts

We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we received but didn’t have time to answer during the event.

24 June 2022