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Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The further jump in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 19.0% y/y in July is unlikely to trigger an interest rate hike but it will delay the start of an easing cycle until the back end of this year. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

3 August 2021

India Economics Update

Asset sales delay will create a fiscal hole

The postponement of the planned privatisation of two state-owned banks to next year has dealt an all-too-familiar blow to the Finance Ministry’s hopes of raising significant revenues from asset sales in FY21/22. Rather than relaxing the overall fiscal deficit target, we expect the Finance Ministry to opt to make up for the revenue shortfall by reducing spending, which would weigh on the economic recovery.

3 August 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Hawkish RBA to hike rates in early-2023

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise by not delaying the tapering of its bond purchases. And by predicting that it will hit its full employment mandate and make further progress towards its inflation target, it has opened the door for earlier rate hikes than its current guidance of 2024.    

3 August 2021

Global Economics Update

Global PMIs flattening off at high levels

The main takeaway from today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs is that industrial output growth looks to have peaked. Output indices have generally stopped rising, and new orders indices have come off the boil. Even so, with supply unable to keep up with demand, price pressures show little sign of abating.

2 August 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe

June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry rebounded sharply and manufacturing recoveries continue strongly in most of Emerging Europe. Supply disruptions are continuing to exert upward pressure on prices in the latter.

2 August 2021

Capital Daily

We expect China’s bond market to diverge from those elsewhere

We think China’s long-term government bond yields will continue to fall as the country’s economy slows further, even if yields rebound elsewhere.

2 August 2021

US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.)

The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that supplier delivery times and the accompanying upward pressure on prices may have peaked. But we suspect it will be a long time before supply constraints ease meaningfully.

2 August 2021

Commodities Update

China PMIs point to weaker metals demand

China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices.

2 August 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI tanked in July as activity was hit by violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. And while activity is likely to rebound this month, South Africa’s recovery is likely to continue to lag behind other major EMs.

2 August 2021

Japan Economics Update

What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan?

With the Delta variant lifting new infections to a record-high, calls for a “hard” lockdown are growing. If that happened, services activity would fall further but we doubt that the government would shut down industry. And with households and firms now better prepared to deal with virus restrictions, it seems likely that GDP wouldn’t revisit last year’s lows.  

2 August 2021

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