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Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2021)

The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.1% y/y in the middle of June, keeps Copom on track to increase the Selic rate to 6.50% (from 4.25% now). But we don’t think that the inflation risks are sufficient (yet) to prompt larger hikes of 100bp at each meeting (rather than the current pace of 75bp hikes).

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