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Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2021)

The above-target Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for January, of 4.3% y/y, is likely to be followed by a jump in the headline rate in the coming months, keeping Copom in hawkish mood. But while Brazil’s central bank will probably be one of the few to raise interest rates this year, we think that the tightening cycle will be much more gradual than most currently anticipate.

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