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NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections

With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are likely to surge. Meanwhile, we now expect the US dollar to strengthen against most major DM and EM currencies including the rupee over the coming years. But the macro implications of a weaker rupee for India are limited.

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