India

India Data Response

India Data Response

Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)

Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

India Data Response

PMI Surveys (Dec.)

India’s PMIs remained buoyant in December, suggesting that activity continued picking up towards the end of 2021. We think the recovery will gain momentum this year but a recent sharp jump in infections means that downside risks dominate in the near-term.

5 January 2022

India Data Response

Wholesale Prices (Nov.)

Indian wholesale price inflation unexpectedly jumped to a record high in November. And given the mounting upside risks to the inflation outlook, there is a growing chance that the RBI brings forward the start of its tightening cycle.   Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

14 December 2021
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India Data Response

Consumer Prices (Nov.)

India’s consumer price inflation rose to a three-month in November and upside risks to the outlook are mounting. While we still think the RBI won’t raise policy rates until the middle of next year, a sharp rise in food price inflation in particular may hasten the start of the tightening cycle.

13 December 2021

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the recovery is still ongoing, although it appears that global supply shortages have remained a drag. And with vaccination coverage in India still low, the threat of new virus outbreaks – either of the Omicron variant or potential successors – will continue to loom. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

India Data Response

GDP (Q3)

The 8.4% y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q3 (Q2 of FY21/22) is consistent with a rapid q/q rebound as virus restrictions were lifted and activity surged. But timelier data suggest that the recovery has since entered a slower phase. And hanging over all of this, low vaccination coverage means the threat of new virus outbreaks – either of the Omicron variant or potential successors – looms large. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report

India Data Response

Wholesale Prices (Oct.)

The jump in headline wholesale price inflation in October was due almost entirely to higher commodity prices, but we think they are now close to peaking. While the RBI will be wary that wholesale prices remain elevated, there’s still scope to keep policy accommodative given the much lower rate of headline CPI inflation.

15 November 2021

India Data Response

Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.)

India’s consumer price inflation edged up in October but remained well below the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s inflation target range. And we expect it to stay there for several months yet, which underpins our view that policy tightening is still some way off.

12 November 2021
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