Global Markets

Global Markets Update

Global Markets Update

Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z

While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove more persistent in the former than in the latter two.

17 September 2021

Global Markets Update

Falling oil prices unlikely to stop EMEA equity gains

Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index.

17 September 2021

Global Markets Update

We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam

While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next couple of years.

10 September 2021
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Global Markets Update

Treasury yields & the outlook for EM LC bonds

We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields which we forecast will push up the yields of equivalent emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) bonds. Based on historical relationships, we expect yields to rise by less than in the US in most EMs. The exception are countries with weak balances sheets. What next for the ECB? We’re hosting a post-mortem after Thursday’s Governing Council meeting at 1100 ET to discuss its decision and our views on the euro-zone’s economic and inflation outlook. Register here.

8 September 2021

Global Markets Update

Four points on tapering and government bond yields

We don’t think tapering by the Fed will cause long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply, although it may contribute some upward pressure. But we do think those yields will rise quite a bit anyway, mainly because of the outlook for inflation in the US.

3 September 2021

Global Markets Update

The virus and global stock markets

Progress made by countries in dealing with COVID-19 still seems to have had little bearing, in general, on the relative performance of their stock markets. Instead, swings in sentiment about the virus at a global level appear to have continued to exert a bigger influence via sector rotation. We expect this to persist.

20 August 2021

Global Markets Update

Gains in EM equities may be small from here

We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China.

Global Markets Update

Tapering and Treasuries

We think tapering by the Fed will remove an obstacle in the way of higher long-term yields, supporting our view that their latest rebound will continue, in general, over the next couple of years.

13 August 2021
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