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Global Markets

Global Markets Update

Global Markets Update

Answering your questions on our market forecasts

We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we received but didn’t have time to answer during the event.

24 June 2022

Global Markets Update

We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields

We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening cycles in many DMs will be more front-loaded and aggressive than we previously thought. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

22 June 2022

Global Markets Update

Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities

We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

20 June 2022
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Global Markets Update

New forecasts for US Treasuries & the S&P 500

We think the sell-offs in US government bonds and equities have further to run, and have revised our forecasts for 10-year Treasuries and the S&P 500 accordingly. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

Global Markets Update

How changes to yield curve control might affect JGBs

We think the Bank of Japan will widen the tolerance band around its 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield target, and that the yield will consequently rise by around 25bp. But there is a clear risk of a larger and more disorderly sell-off than that. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

Global Markets Update

Turning more downbeat on both Treasuries & US equities

The prospect of tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged presents upside risks to our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield as well as downside risks to our forecasts for the S&P 500. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Asset Allocation Update to clients of our Global Markets Service.

Global Markets Update

BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields

The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a possibility, but we doubt it would be effective. We suspect the BoJ will raise the ceiling on long-term interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50% before long, buying itself a respite from pressure on JGB yields and on the yen.

Global Markets Update

New, higher forecasts for EZ bond yields and spreads

We are raising our forecasts for euro-zone 10-year government bond yields and “peripheral” spreads to reflect the ECB’s further hawkish shift as well as its apparent unwillingness to commit to a strong backstop for peripheral bond markets.  

10 June 2022
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