Global Markets

EM Valuations Monitor

EM Valuations Monitor

Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform

We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years.

18 October 2021

EM Valuations Monitor

We doubt valuations will support China’s stock market

While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices.

5 August 2021

EM Valuations Monitor

Low valuations may not support LatAm equities

While the valuation of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index is now low both by past standards and on a relative basis, we think that further gains in the index will be driven mostly by expectations for strong earnings.

22 April 2021
More Publications

EM Valuations Monitor

We doubt Chinese equities are in a bubble

The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon.

EM Valuations Monitor

EM sovereign $ bonds are not undervalued in our view

While sovereign dollar bond spreads in many emerging markets (EMs) are quite high by past standards, we think this is largely justified by the deterioration in fiscal positions caused by the coronavirus crisis.

16 October 2020

EM Valuations Monitor

High valuations unlikely to preclude further rally

While the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities look high relative to their past levels we don’t think that this will necessarily prevent them from rising further, provided that the continued spread of the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t derail the incipient recovery of the global economy.

15 July 2020

EM Valuations Monitor

EM ex-Asia assets starting to look attractively-valued

EM equities and bonds outside Asia now appear quite attractively valued by past standards. This underpins our view that those assets will mostly outperform in the second half of this year, assuming that the pandemic is brought under control in much of the world.

17 April 2020

EM Valuations Monitor

Valuations unlikely to continue to support EM equities

We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be weak, valuations are also unlikely to provide much support.

1 to 8 of 28 publications
See More ↓