Global Markets

EM Markets Chart Book

EM Markets Chart Book

We think PBOC easing will push down CGB yields

While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to run, and that this will contribute to a further fall in the 10-year Chinese government bond yield.

22 December 2021

EM Markets Chart Book

Contagion from Turkey’s crisis likely to remain limited

Spillovers to other emerging markets from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure.

24 November 2021

EM Markets Chart Book

We think China’s equities will continue to struggle

Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021
More Publications

EM Markets Chart Book

China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities

We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs).

EM Markets Chart Book

We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields

We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here.

EM Markets Chart Book

We think EM equities will rise, not shine

We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM) equities recently and we doubt they will perform much better than them in the coming year and a half.

EM Markets Chart Book

Toning down our optimism about EM assets & currencies

We have become more pessimistic about the outlook for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies as we now expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further over the next two years.

1 April 2021

EM Markets Chart Book

We don’t think we are in for another “taper tantrum”

We still expect emerging market (EM) “risky” assets and currencies to make further gains this year, despite growing concerns about another “taper tantrum”.

23 February 2021
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