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DM Markets Chart Book

DM Markets Chart Book

More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets

We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets.

24 May 2022

DM Markets Chart Book

Markets are creaking but not (yet) breaking

So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a destabilising cycle of panic selling and money market distress from taking hold, even if such as step would to some extent clash with their plans to tighten monetary policy further. This publication takes stock of the various signs of stress across the global financial system. We intend to update the analysis periodically while the current market turmoil continues. In view of the wider interest, we are making this Stress Monitor available to clients of our Global Markets, FX Markets, and Asset Allocation Services.

20 May 2022

DM Markets Chart Book

How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking

The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and to lower our projections for DM equities generally. Commodities Drop-In (24 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): Our Commodities team will be exploring how the war in Ukraine is shaking up commodity markets, from oil to wheat, while tackling some of the big market questions – not least whether we’re in for 1970s-style oil supply shocks. Register here.

23 March 2022
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DM Markets Chart Book

Some signs of strains in markets but no panic yet

In light of the growing economic and financial fallout from the war in Ukraine, this publication takes stock of the various signs of stress across the global financial system. We intend to update the analysis periodically while the current market turmoil continues. In view of the wider interest, we are making this Stress Monitor available to clients of our Global Markets, FX Markets, and Asset Allocation Services.

3 March 2022

DM Markets Chart Book

Monetary tightening may continue to limit risky assets’ gains

Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would continue to keep a lid on any rally.

16 February 2022

DM Markets Chart Book

We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains

While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past decade.

DM Markets Chart Book

We think US inflation compensation will rise further

US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one of the reasons why we forecast the yields of long-dated US Treasuries to rise over the next two years.

DM Markets Chart Book

Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength

We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years.

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