Global Markets

DM Markets Chart Book

DM Markets Chart Book

We think US inflation compensation will rise further

US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one of the reasons why we forecast the yields of long-dated US Treasuries to rise over the next two years.

19 November 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength

We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years.

17 September 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

Fed’s inflation tolerance may lead to higher bond yields

A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation.

25 August 2021
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DM Markets Chart Book

We still expect higher yields & equity rotation in the US

The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the “rotation trade” in equity markets will resume before long.

DM Markets Chart Book

We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse

While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years.

DM Markets Chart Book

We forecast higher yields, a stronger $ & gains in equities

We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world. As such, we have revised up our forecast for the US dollar, and expect it to strengthen somewhat between now and end-2022. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our view that DM equities, including in the US, will generally make further ground as economies re-open and corporate earnings rebound.

31 March 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

We don’t think this is the start of a rout in bond markets

In our view, central banks’ cautious approach to tightening means that the yields of 10-year government bonds will rise only slowly in the next few years, even as the global economy recovers further.

18 February 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

We think that the rally in equity markets will continue

We think there is scope for global equities to make more headway over the next couple of years, against the backdrop of a recovering global economy and supportive monetary and fiscal policy.

16 December 2020
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