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Global Markets

Global Markets Update

Answering your questions on our market forecasts

We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we received but didn’t have time to answer during the event.

24 June 2022

Global Markets Update

We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields

We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening cycles in many DMs will be more front-loaded and aggressive than we previously thought. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

22 June 2022

Global Markets Update

Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities

We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

20 June 2022

Our view

We expect further rises in global government bond yields and renewed falls in equity prices over the coming year. Government bond yields have typically peaked only shortly before the ends of central bank tightening cycles and we expect most major central banks to raise rates significantly over the remainder of this year. We think the increase in government bond yields, as well as a slowdown in global economic growth, will keep risky assets, such as equities and corporate bonds, under pressure. We also expect the worsening risk environment as well as aggressive tightening by the Fed to result in further US dollar appreciation.

Latest Outlook

Global Markets Outlook

Further pain may still be in store for global markets

We think the rises in global government bond yields – and falls in equity prices – have not run their course yet. Yields have typically peaked only shortly before the ends of central bank tightening cycles and we doubt this one will be different. We expect this, as well as the threat of slowing growth, to keep risky assets, such as equities and corporate bonds, under pressure until around the middle of next year. But we suspect markets will eventually turn a corner as tightening cycles draw to a close, with bond yields generally beginning to fall back later next year and equities starting to post solid – albeit not spectacular – gains. Global Outlook Drop-In (4th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Our Global Economics team will be answering your questions as they and discuss their Q2 Outlook report in this special 20-minute briefing. Register to learn more about our above-consensus views on inflation and rates and how these feed our below-consensus take on the growth outlook. Register now

29 April 2022