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FX Markets

FX Markets Update

FX Markets Update

What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets

While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores the potential ramifications of such an event across bond, equity and FX markets. Markets Drop-In (9th Aug): Chief Markets Economist John Higgins leads this 20-minute briefing on our latest quarterly Outlook reports from our Global Markets, Asset Allocation and FX Markets services. Register now.  

5 August 2022

FX Markets Update

Reassessing our forecasts for US markets

We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In particular, we now suspect the 10-year yield is unlikely to surpass the peak it reached in June any time soon. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation and FX Market Services. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now

29 July 2022

FX Markets Update

EM FX has a bit further to fall; some pockets of greater concern

With global economic growth weakening and risk sentiment unlikely to rebound sustainably this year in our view, we think that EM currencies generally will remain under pressure over the next several months and that there are a handful of countries where there is a growing risk of larger currency falls. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Overview Service.

26 July 2022
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FX Markets Update

We expect “high-beta” DM currencies to fall further

Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year.

FX Markets Update

We think the Mexican peso will fall further

We expect the Mexican peso to fall further against the US dollar amid mounting external headwinds. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Latin America Service. ECB Preview (19th July, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Our Europe team will be briefing on what to expect from the ECB ahead of its crunch July meeting. They’ll be talking about lift-off for rate hikes, what a weak euro means for policy`, the Transmission Protection Mechanism and much more. Register now.

FX Markets Update

Taking stock of the dollar’s rally

With the DXY index surging to a fresh 20-year high, the US dollar has reached our end-2022 forecasts against several of the other major currencies. While we are sticking to our current forecasts for now, this Update considers how the factors underpinning the greenback’s rise might evolve. ECB Preview (19th July, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Our Europe team will be briefing on what to expect from the ECB ahead of its crunch July meeting. They’ll be talking about lift-off for rate hikes, what a weak euro means for policy`, the Transmission Protection Mechanism and much more. Register now.

15 July 2022

FX Markets Update

What would it take to generate an even stronger US dollar?

We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update considers what factors might deliver a more significant (10%+) rally in the greenback over the next 6-12 months.

7 July 2022

FX Markets Update

Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets

We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our FX Markets and UK Markets Services.

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