European Data Response

European Data Response

German Ifo Survey (January)

The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from the Omicron wave likely to ease in the coming weeks, we think German GDP will increase in Q1. Euro-zone Drop-In: Why the ECB will be laying the groundwork for rate hikes in 2023. Join Andrew Kenningham and the Europe team for a discussion about their Q1 euro-zone Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, 1 Feb at 09:00 EST/14:00 GMT. Registration here.

25 January 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.)

The small decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that Omicron has taken a toll on the services sector, though Germany performed surprisingly well. We think governments will ease restrictions sufficiently in February and March to allow euro-zone GDP to increase by around 0.5% in Q1.

24 January 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.)

January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly once the Omicron wave fades and restrictions are eased. Drop-In (14:00 GMT, 26th Jan): UK Outlook -- More inflation, more interest rate hikes. Join our UK Economics team for a briefing on the 2022 outlook, including why we’re below consensus on growth but think the BoE will raise rates more than most expect. Register here.

21 January 2022
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European Data Response

Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.)

Euro-zone inflation is likely to have peaked at 5% in December, with energy inflation set to fall sharply this year. But we think that core inflation will settle at around 2%, prompting the ECB to prepare the ground for interest rates to rise next year.

20 January 2022

European Data Response

German Inflation (December)

Final inflation data for December showed that the decline in Germany’s HICP inflation rate to 5.7% was due to energy and services. We expect both headline and core inflation to fall this year, but only to around 2.5% on the headline measure by December, which is above the Bundesbank’s comfort zone.

19 January 2022

European Data Response

German GDP (2021)

Provisional data showing that Germany’s GDP increased by 2.7% last year and news that it shrank in Q4 underlines that its recovery has lagged many of its peers, including the US, France and the UK. We think that German GDP will expand by less than the consensus expects this year too.

European Data Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.)

November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that industry now seems likely to have contracted in Q4, presenting a downside risk to our forecast of a 0.2% rise in GDP.

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Nov.)

Unemployment in the euro-zone fell again in November, and timelier data suggest that there have been further improvements since then. While there has been less of a hit to the workforce in the euro-zone than in the US, firms report that labour shortages are constraining production.

10 January 2022
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