Europe

European Data Response

European Data Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug)

The large decline in euro-zone industrial production in August was largely due to supply shortages affecting production, particularly in the German auto sector. While demand is still strong, prolonged supply shortages and high input prices suggest manufacturing will continue to struggle in Q4.

13 October 2021

European Data Response

German Industrial Production (August)

The whopping 4.7% m/m fall in German manufacturing production in August left industrial output 9.0% below its February 2020 level. With conditions having worsened since then, Germany’s manufacturing problems threaten to keep overall economic activity well below its pre-pandemic level until next year.

7 October 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.)

August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending on goods is flatlining. But overall consumption is still likely to have grown fairly strongly in Q3 as spending on services increased.

6 October 2021
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European Data Response

Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.)

The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery losing some momentum as GDP approaches its pre-pandemic size and as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing. The surveys also show that price pressures are spreading to the services sector, even in parts of the periphery.

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.)

Euro-zone inflation looks set to continue on its upward trend and we think it will soon hit 4%. That makes it more likely that the ECB will scale back its asset purchases substantially in March. But we still expect headline and core inflation to fall sharply in 2022 and to settle well below 2% in 2023.

1 October 2021

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Aug.)

The fall in euro-zone unemployment in August brings the jobless rate back very close to its pre-pandemic level. But employment is still below pre-virus levels, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a long way to go. Labour market slack will continue to weigh on wage growth.

30 September 2021

European Data Response

EC Survey (September)

The small improvement in economic sentiment in the euro-zone in September provides reassurance that supply shortages and the Delta variant will not cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth. Nevertheless, price pressures continue to intensify in all sectors.

European Data Response

German Ifo Survey (September)

The third successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in September provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing steam, as supply chain difficulties persist and the surge in gas prices piles additional pressure on prices and production. That said, we still expect strong GDP growth in Q3, given the low base at the start of Q2.

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