European Commercial Property
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European Commercial Property

European Commercial Property Update

European Commercial Property Update

CEE yield compression to continue into 2022

After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with higher bond yields eventually weighing on valuations, we expect property yields to edge up from 2023.

30 November 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Consensus still underestimating impact of remote work

The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for the next couple of years. Even so, we still have a more downbeat view on the outlook after 2022.

15 November 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Dutch industrial rental growth catching up with EZ

A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of underperformance, our forecasts leave Dutch rental growth in line with the euro-zone average.

11 November 2021
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European Commercial Property Update

German retail vacancy to remain elevated

The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand, particularly in Frankfurt and Munich.

European Commercial Property Update

Cautiously optimistic on Moscow office rents

While the latest virus outbreak has clouded the near-term outlook, a tight supply picture and steady employment growth mean that prime Moscow office rents should return to growth in 2022.

European Commercial Property Update

Investment to peak later next year

The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in the office and retail sectors, we think commercial property investment will peak next year at a level still well below its previous highs.

European Commercial Property Update

Risk of stronger French industrial rental growth ahead

We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become more acute, there is a risk that rents climb higher than we currently anticipate.

European Commercial Property Update

Warsaw retail rents to recover but not surge

After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending and keep a lid on rental growth.

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