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European Commercial Property

Non-euro European Commercial Property Chart Book

Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value gains set to slow

The recovery continued in the Scandinavian and Swiss economies and their property markets in Q1. It was a record first quarter for investment in Scandinavia. And annual capital value growth was robust for office and industrial, while retail values rebounded from their pandemic lows. However, pent-up demand from the pandemic will wane and the sharp rise in bond yields is already squeezing property valuations. As such, investment activity should slow over the course of the year, while we think property yields will reach their troughs.

24 May 2022

Non-euro European Commercial Property Chart Book

Emerging Europe: Rental growth steps up

CEE economies and property markets started the year on a solid footing. Strong quarterly increases in office and industrial rents supported CEE all-property values in Q1, though yield compression slowed. However, rental growth is likely to drop back further ahead as economic growth decelerates, supply rises and structural changes take their toll. And we expect all-property yield compression to come to a halt, given increases in bond yields and signs of a shift in investor sentiment towards some CEE markets. As such, capital value growth is likely to slow sharply by year end. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

19 May 2022

Euro-zone Commercial Property Chart Book

Slower yield compression weighs on capital growth

Euro-zone commercial property values made further gains in Q1. Quarterly rental growth was strongest for industrial, though office and retail rents also rose. However, the pace of yield compression reduced, limiting capital value growth. And we expect this slowdown to continue, given the weaker economic outlook and expected rises in interest rates and bond yields, which mean property yields are likely to reach their trough this year. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

18 May 2022

Our view

A weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates and bond yields this year and next mean that we expect property yields to reach their trough this year. At this point, office yields are likely to be most vulnerable, given the sector’s weaker rental prospects. Rising property yields will hit property capital values over the next few years. However, with bond yields likely to peak in 2023, the impact should be limited.