Three potential catalysts for lower European gas prices

A mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, a substitution of gas for other fuels in electricity generation, and/or a rise in supply via Nord Stream 2 could all send European gas prices lower in the months ahead. But even if prices start to fall back soon, we still think they will remain elevated until at least Q2 2022.
Kieran Clancy Commodities Economist
Continue reading

More from Energy

Energy Update

Revisiting our oil market outlook

Omicron will weigh on jet fuel demand in the next few months, but the wider hit to demand is still unclear. And although OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its planned oil production increases, we think it will struggle to raise output by as much as planned next year. So, for now, we are leaving our end-2022 oil price forecasts unchanged, but downside risk has risen due to the threat to demand.

3 December 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial stocks fell as, despite some chunky falls in product demand, US demand is still outstripping supply. Although, the release did shows signs that crude production might finally be responding to higher prices.

1 December 2021

Energy Update

Strategic release of reserves is too little too late

The announcement of the co-ordinated release of oil reserves by the US and other large oil consumers should mean higher supply (and downward pressure on prices) but it will come at a time when we expect that the market will be in a surplus anyway. What’s more, the big risk is that the release prompts OPEC+ to slow or halt its output rises.

25 November 2021

More from Kieran Clancy

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US crude stocks have continued to fall as refinery activity has so far recovered faster than crude output following Hurricane Ida. And with demand already broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, US crude stocks are likely to fall further in the weeks ahead, which should support oil prices.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.)

The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are tilting towards a faster relaxation of the group’s collective output cut in the year ahead.

13 September 2021

Energy Update

How long will coal and gas prices remain sky-high?

Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to remain high at least into the start of 2022 as stocks will still need to be rebuilt from their current lows. CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021
↑ Back to top