Energy

Energy Update

Energy Update

Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained

We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to earth by early 2022. However, a strong economic rebound and a high carbon prices should prevent the price of natural gas returning to its 2020 lows.

20 July 2021

Energy Update

Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices

The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect Brent to fall into the $60-70 range in 2022 as more global supply comes onto the market.

19 July 2021

Energy Update

OPEC impasse: what next?

The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC+ output in the coming months and what they would mean for oil prices.

6 July 2021
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Energy Update

Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub

Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large part because of higher production.

Energy Update

Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling

Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue for the rest of the year, but this won’t stop rising supply pushing oil prices lower by end-year.

Energy Update

Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022

Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to fall from Q4 this year and throughout 2022.

Energy Update

Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon

After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which should run its course over the coming months. That said, the outlook for spot Asia LNG prices further ahead remains bright.

9 June 2021

Energy Update

Strong demand to keep the Pacific coal price high

The price of Pacific coal has surged to just over $100 per tonne for the first time since 2019. We think that the price will remain elevated for the rest of this year in large part owing to strong demand.

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