Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

A closer look at the EM export boom

EM exports are set to hit a new high in Q2, which will help to support economic growth, particularly in East Asia where virus cases are hitting domestic economies. While EM exports are likely to come off their current highs, they will probably stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of the year.

27 May 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Improved trade positions set to gradually unwind

The broad-based improvement in EM goods trade balances over the past year is likely to unwind over the coming quarters as consumption patterns gradually normalise and oil prices recover further. But at the same time, a big build-up of external imbalances is much less likely than it was a decade ago in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. This should limit the extent to which EMs become vulnerable to a tightening of external financing conditions.

22 April 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Recent EM export strength likely to fade

EM exports have continued to rise sharply in recent months and this strength may persist for a little while yet. But the big tailwind to some of the Asian economies from strong demand for electronics will turn into a headwind in the coming quarters, which is likely to cause overall EM export growth to soften.

24 March 2021
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Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Microchip shortages: first thoughts on the trade impact

A global shortage of semiconductors is disrupting auto production, and – among EMs – it could hit exports from Central Europe and Mexico in particular. But some of the lost revenue should be made up once shortages ease. Meanwhile, strong semiconductor demand is positive for the major producers in Asia, although their overall export revenues are still likely to soften later this year as global consumption patterns normalise.

26 February 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Big gains in EM exports are behind us

While we expect a swift recovery in developed economies over the course of this year, we doubt that this will come alongside a boom in EM goods exports. Instead, as global consumption patterns start to normalise, the key story over the next year or so will be one of softening demand for goods from major export hubs in Asia and Emerging Europe.

29 January 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Taking stock of the improvement in trade positions

One striking observation from the latest EM goods trade data is that exports have continued to rebound faster than imports, causing trade positions to improve further. While some of these gains may endure, various factors that have boosted EM trade balances this year look set to unwind in 2021.

11 December 2020

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

How an effective vaccine might impact EM exports

An effective vaccine rolled over the course of 2021-22 would probably result in weaker demand for COVID-19 related products and some consumer goods, removing a tailwind to exporters in parts of Asia and Central & Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices would lift export values for natural resources exporters. And a recovery in tourism would be a welcome boost to services exports from the likes of Thailand and Turkey.

12 November 2020

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

The uneven EM export recovery

At the aggregate level, EM exports continued to recover in August and September. But this masks a wide divergence in performance at a country level, which we expect to persist in the coming months.

27 October 2020
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