Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Recent shifts in EM trade balances likely to reverse

The big increases in EM commodity producers’ trade balances this year are likely to go into reverse if, as we expect, the prices of energy and metals fall back. At the same time, the manufacturing-based EMs whose exports have been held back recently by lockdowns and supply chain disruptions should start to see improvements in their trade balances.

29 October 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Headwinds facing metals exporters

It looks like EM exports rose further in August and, possibly, September too. And while we expect them to decline over the coming quarters, they will remain elevated. However, China’s property slowdown means that the risks to the export outlook for some metals producers are larger.

29 September 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

EM goods exports may have reached a turning point

Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated levels for some time yet.

23 August 2021
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Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

EM goods exports may have passed the peak

After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet.

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

EM exports may be peaking

EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of the year.

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

A closer look at the EM export boom

EM exports are set to hit a new high in Q2, which will help to support economic growth, particularly in East Asia where virus cases are hitting domestic economies. While EM exports are likely to come off their current highs, they will probably stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of the year.

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Improved trade positions set to gradually unwind

The broad-based improvement in EM goods trade balances over the past year is likely to unwind over the coming quarters as consumption patterns gradually normalise and oil prices recover further. But at the same time, a big build-up of external imbalances is much less likely than it was a decade ago in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. This should limit the extent to which EMs become vulnerable to a tightening of external financing conditions.

22 April 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

Recent EM export strength likely to fade

EM exports have continued to rise sharply in recent months and this strength may persist for a little while yet. But the big tailwind to some of the Asian economies from strong demand for electronics will turn into a headwind in the coming quarters, which is likely to cause overall EM export growth to soften.

24 March 2021
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