Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for those countries where external vulnerabilities are high (Turkey) or growing (parts of CEE and Latin America). Drop-In: Turkey’s new economic policy = old problems (Thurs 20th Jan, 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT). William Jackson and Jason Tuvey discuss the economic problems associated with the lira’s collapse, including the government’s policy response. Register here.

19 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am

The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But current account deficits have become an increasing cause for concern in parts of Emerging Europe (Hungary, Poland and Romania) and Latin America (Colombia and Chile). Drop-In: Join Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson and Jason Tuvey, head of our Turkey coverage, shortly after this Thursday’s CBRT meeting for a discussion about Jason’s new report on economic policy-making in Turkey, the impact of the lira’s collapse and brewing macro risks this Thursday 20th January at 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT. Register here.

18 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022

In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

13 January 2022
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Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing

December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price components dropped back in many EMs, suggesting that inflation pressures may be easing, although Turkey was a notable exception to this trend.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Foreign investors have been net sellers of EM assets for much of this year and tighter monetary policy in the US and a stronger dollar suggest that the environment for EMs next year will remain challenging. The good news is that most major EMs should be in a good position to weather any renewed outflows.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs

Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause domestic monetary policy to be tightened slightly more quickly in a handful of EMs (e.g. Mexico, South Africa, India) which could weigh on economic recoveries. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat

November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s still too early to tell, the Omicron variant could exacerbate existing strains. The upshot is that supply constraints are likely to continue to weigh on industry for some time yet.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs

There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia that have lower vaccination rates, more limited fiscal space and/or larger tourism sectors. The new variant may also temper the pace of tightening cycles in parts of the emerging world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Markets Economics Update to clients of all our Emerging Markets services.

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