Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) took a leg down in November and point to the recovery stalling in the middle of Q4. The fall in sentiment was broad-based across the region, though it was much smaller than the slump seen back in April. What’s more, the recent gradual loosening of virus restrictions is likely to continue, which should help to lift activity from here.
Bethany Beckett Assistant Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukrainian markets feel the heat, oil nearing $90pb

Ukraine's financial markets remained under pressure this week as investors appear to have priced in a more serious outcome regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions. A positive reaction to today's talks between the US and Russia has brought some relief but, even if a renewed conflict doesn't materialise, local markets are set to face a difficult few months. Meanwhile, oil prices closed in on $90pb this week and we've revised up our year-end Brent crude forecast to $70pb (from $60pb). This will help support Russia's budget and current account surpluses, but will add 0.2-0.3%-pts to inflation elsewhere in the region and cause current account balances to worsen.

21 January 2022

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Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery

We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we think that persistent capacity constraints will mean that inflation ultimately settles at a higher level than is currently appreciated. This feeds into our relatively hawkish interest rate forecasts, particularly in Russia, Poland and Czechia.

20 January 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT: rates held in pursuit of “new economic model”

Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) followed kept its one-week repo rate on hold at 14.00% today and, even though inflation is likely to breach 40% in the coming months, President Erdogan is unlikely to permit interest rate hikes. We think it’s more likely that further easing will be delivered later this year. Drop-In: Turkey’s new economic policy = old problems (Thurs 20th Jan, 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT). William Jackson and Jason Tuvey discuss the economic problems associated with the lira’s collapse, including the government’s policy response. Register here.

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US payrolls and Treasury yields

Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long.

2 July 2021

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Weighing up the prospects for the NOK

We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative prospects for monetary policy in Norway and the euro-zone.

1 July 2021

Capital Daily

We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm

US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform Treasuries only very slightly.

22 June 2021
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