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Emerging Europe

Emerging Europe Data Response

Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Activity Data (Apr.)

April’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q2 and the effects of the war in Ukraine will remain a key headwind over the coming months. That said, we think Poland will avoid a contraction and outperform its peers in the rest of the region over 2022 as a whole.

23 May 2022

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia GDP (Q1 2022)

The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western sanctions bite hard. For 2022 as a whole, we’ve pencilled in a 12% contraction in Russia’s economy, which would be the steepest downturn since the 1990s.

18 May 2022

Emerging Europe Data Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2022)

Q1 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe smashed expectations in Poland, Romania and Hungary and suggest that their economies were running hot at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine will dampen activity in Q2, but demand is likely to remain strong which will keep wage and inflation pressures elevated and require central banks to raise interest rates further than most expect this year. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

17 May 2022
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Israel GDP (Q1 2022)

The 1.6% q/q annualised contraction in Q1 GDP in Israel was weaker than analysts expected, but it was more or less in line with our forecast and doesn’t change the bigger picture that Israel’s economy is operating in line with its pre-pandemic trend. With inflation rising and the labour market tightening, we expect the central bank to raise interest rates from 0.35% now to over 2% next year. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Russian inflation came in broadly as expected in April, rising from 16.7% y/y to a two-decade high of 17.8% y/y and it looks like further increases in the coming months will be modest. This will prompt the central bank to unwind its emergency interest rate hike further, with a 200bp rate cut next month. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)

Turkey’s activity data for March suggest that the economy held up better than expected in Q1 as a weak lira appears to have supported industry, while policies to preserve households’ purchasing power have limited the downturn in retail sales. But spillovers from the war in Ukraine mean that, for now, we are sticking with our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.3% this year. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.  

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp increase to 70.0% y/y in April and there’s a strong chance that it moves beyond its peak in the early 2000s in the coming months. Despite this inflation backdrop, a widening current account deficit and more aggressive tightening by the Fed, there is no sign that Turkey’s central bank is about to hike interest rates. EM Drop-In (5th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join Shilan Shah for our latest monthly session on the big macro and markets stories in EMs. This month, Shilan and the team will be talking Russian gas, FX weakness and surging food prices. Register now

Emerging Europe Data Response

Czech GDP (Q1 2022)

The 0.7% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly stronger than expected, although it still marked a slowdown in growth and, in particular, there were signs of weakness at the end of the quarter. We think that spillovers from the war in Ukraine will weigh heavily on industry and cause the economy to contract in Q2.

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