My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

BoK hawkish, vaccine hopes, Singapore trade softens

Policymakers in Korea have started to sound increasingly hawkish about the outlook for monetary policy, supporting our view that the Bank of Korea will begin raising interest rates before the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have cut our Singapore growth forecast for this year from 7.0% to 6.0% to reflect the recent pullback in exports and the government’s decision to postpone the planned reopening of the economy.
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
Continue reading

More from Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: on the mend

Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, but with inflationary pressures relatively low, we are sticking with our view that the central bank will not raise interest rates this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Thai economy to receive tourism boost

After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level reached in the same month of 2019. Spending by foreign tourists was equivalent to over 10% of GDP before the pandemic began, and a steady recovery in the sector will provide an important boost to the struggling economy – Thailand was the only major country in the region where GDP was still below its pre-pandemic level in the first quarter. A stronger recovery should provide the central bank with the confidence it needs to begin tightening monetary policy. Despite surging inflation, the Bank of Thailand has been one of the few central banks in the region not to hike rates this year as it has prioritised supporting the economy. Our forecast is that the BoT will finally raise interest rates at its August meeting. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

27 June 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change

There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening monetary policy further. We expect growth to slow in the second half of the year, which should help to cool underlying price pressures, while a reopening of the international border should help to ease labour shortages. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Malaysia: rates to remain low for a long time

The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and fitful, we think BNM will leave interest rates at their current low until at least the end of 2022.

8 July 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Trade (June)

After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect goods export values are close to their peak.

1 July 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (June)

The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chains issues created mounting headwinds for industry. With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the past few quarters looks unlikely to be repeated.

1 July 2021
↑ Back to top