Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How big a threat is Omicron to Asia?

Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is still room for fiscal and monetary policy to be loosened if prospects took a turn for the worse. Asian exporters could also benefit if a new wave of global infections led to increased demand for consumer goods.

2 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger

Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a renewed surge in COVID infections in Vietnam deserves close attention. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to hike at least three more times in 2022

Today’s move by the Bank of Korea is likely to mark the second hike of at least five, in a tightening cycle that began in August and will extend well into next year.

25 November 2021
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Export orders dip, but shortages will persist

Taiwan export orders dropped back in October, but the big picture is that they are down only slightly over the past few months and remain at an elevated level. Looking ahead, we expect demand to weaken, but a backlog of unmet orders means shortages will persist for some time.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Pakistan: further rate hikes coming

Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised interest rates by an aggressive 150bp and with inflation set to remain above target and the currency likely to come under further downward pressure, further hikes are likely over the coming months.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank Indonesia is in no rush to tighten

Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and appeared to signal that policy rates would remain unchanged for some time yet. A large output gap and weak inflation mean the central bank is in no hurry to follow other EM central banks by tightening policy.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: rates will stay low to support recovery

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today to support the economic recovery, and with GDP still well below its pre-pandemic level, rates are set to remain low for a long time to come.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time.

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