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Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Dovish Bank Indonesia in no hurry to raise rates

Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged today and the dovish tone from the press conference suggests the central bank is in no rush to tighten policy. We are maintaining our view the central bank will raise interest rates by just 25bps this year. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

24 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin

High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks inevitable, and much will depend on whether the government can agree terms with the IMF over the resumption of its US$6bn loan programme. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

23 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: central bank will tighten gradually

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) started raising interest rates today, but with inflation set to slow later in the year and the economic recovery likely to weaken, the tightening cycle is set to be gradual and relatively short. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

19 May 2022
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Asia to remain inflation outlier

Despite surging global food and fuel prices, inflation across most of Emerging Asia looks set to remain relatively low. This is the key reason why tightening cycles in the region will be much more gradual than elsewhere.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank Negara Malaysia will go slow following early hike

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its main policy rate earlier than many had expected today, but given low inflation and a continued need to support the recovery, we still think that the tightening cycle will be much more gradual than markets expect. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Sri Lanka: five questions and answers on the crisis

The resignation yesterday of the prime minister, the postponement of talks with the IMF, surging inflation and the collapse of the currency are just some of the many problems facing Sri Lanka. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the outlook for the country. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: What to expect from Bongbong Marcos

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is eager to resume the “Build Build Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor and pursue closer ties with China. Extra spending on infrastructure would be welcome and could provide an important boost to the country’s prospects. In contrast, the potential economic benefits from closer ties with China are likely to be quite small, especially given the risk that a pivot towards Beijing could jeopardise the country’s more important economic relationship with the US. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank Indonesia to tighten gradually

Bank Indonesia left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the relatively benign outlook for inflation means the tightening cycle is likely to be very gradual.

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