China Economic Outlook

China Economic Outlook

Cyclical trough, tepid rebound

China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting structural headwinds will limit the extent of any rebound. Drop-In (08:00 GMT/16:00 HKT, 27th Jan): China Outlook – Cyclical trough, tepid rebound. Join Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard for a discussion about China’s economic and policy outlook this year. Register here.

26 January 2022

China Economic Outlook

Downturn setting in

The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could pull down China’s growth to just 3% next year.

26 October 2021

China Economic Outlook

Coming down to earth

China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not likely to follow, but highly-indebted firms, including many property developers, will come under increasing strain.

23 July 2021
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China Economic Outlook

Rebound levelling off

After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of years as investment and exports slow.

China Economic Outlook

A year of two halves

China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and exports fade.

China Economic Outlook

Recovery broadening out

China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on investment and exports but, with labour market slack quickly being absorbed, consumer spending is now picking up too.

China Economic Outlook

COVID-19 hit to fully reverse by year-end

China’s success in containing COVID-19 and the short duration of its lockdown have enabled its economy to rebound rapidly. With policy support set to remain strong, China is on course to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year, far earlier than any other major economy.

29 July 2020

China Economic Outlook

Past the worst but recovery to underwhelm

After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract this year and remain below the pre-virus path well into 2021.

15 April 2020
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