China Economic Outlook

China Economic Outlook

Coming down to earth

China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not likely to follow, but highly-indebted firms, including many property developers, will come under increasing strain.

23 July 2021

China Economic Outlook

Rebound levelling off

After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of years as investment and exports slow.

28 April 2021

China Economic Outlook

A year of two halves

China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and exports fade.

21 January 2021
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China Economic Outlook

Recovery broadening out

China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on investment and exports but, with labour market slack quickly being absorbed, consumer spending is now picking up too.

China Economic Outlook

COVID-19 hit to fully reverse by year-end

China’s success in containing COVID-19 and the short duration of its lockdown have enabled its economy to rebound rapidly. With policy support set to remain strong, China is on course to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year, far earlier than any other major economy.

29 July 2020

China Economic Outlook

Past the worst but recovery to underwhelm

After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract this year and remain below the pre-virus path well into 2021.

15 April 2020

China Economic Outlook

Further slowdown in 2020 with coronavirus a new threat

Cooling property construction is likely to weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters. But with external demand starting to stabilise, the slowdown should be gradual, as long as the coronavirus outbreak is contained.

China Economic Outlook

Slowdown delayed not averted

China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to intensify further, it is hard to see how a slowdown can be avoided in the coming quarters.

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