China Data Response

China Data Response

China PMIs (Jul.)

The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of price gains and weighing on activity in industry and construction. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

2 August 2021

China Data Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter as exports moderated after an exceptional Q1. The path of output is likely to remain subdued until Hong Kong’s borders reopen.

30 July 2021

China Data Response

China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)

China’s GDP growth dropped back in y/y terms last quarter as the base for comparison became less flattering. In q/q terms, output rose at a slightly faster pace than in Q1, when a flare-up in virus cases weighed on services activity. But sequential growth remained more subdued than over most of the past few years and momentum is likely to remain weak during the second half of this year.

15 July 2021
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China Data Response

China Trade (Jun.)

Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will soften in the coming quarters.

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)

Credit growth levelled off in June having previously decelerated to the pre-pandemic pace. We suspect this is a pause rather than an end to the slowdown – today’s RRR cut notwithstanding. Either way, the deceleration over the first half of the year will be a headwind to activity in the second.

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.)

After reaching a 12-year high in May, producer price inflation dropped back in June as the rally in global commodity prices faltered. Consumer price inflation declined too, on the back of a sharp drop in pork prices. We think PPI inflation has already peaked and that CPI inflation will remain muted this year.

China Data Response

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)

The Caixin manufacturing index published today dropped back last month and adds to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that momentum in industry is waning. The surveys point to a levelling off in demand and easing of price pressures, even as supply shortages continue to constrain output.

China Data Response

China Official PMIs (Jun.)

The latest surveys suggest that growth softened this month. A slower improvement in services activity was mostly to blame. But supply shortages also continued to hold back output in the manufacturing sector. On a more positive note, the surveys point to an abrupt easing in price pressures recently.

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