China

China Data Response

China Data Response

China GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.)

Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter and in q/q terms was the strongest since late 2020. But we are sceptical that this reflects the reality on the ground – our China Activity Proxy suggests output was largely stagnant last quarter. With the property sector still struggling and virus disruptions becoming more frequent, economic momentum is likely to remain weak throughout much of this year.

17 January 2022

China Data Response

China Trade (Dec.)

Exports remained strong last month but may soften in the coming months amid growing disruptions at ports. Meanwhile, imports dropped back sharply, consistent with continued domestic weakness, especially in the property sector.

14 January 2022

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)

Broad credit growth picked up again in December amid increased policy support. We think lending will continue to rebound in the coming months although officials are likely to prevent a sharp jump.  

12 January 2022
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China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)

Chinese inflation dropped back last month, consistent with our view that the acceleration in price gains in earlier months would prove temporary. We think factory-gate inflation will continue to moderate going forward and that consumer price inflation will remain muted.

12 January 2022

China Data Response

China PMIs (Dec.)

The latest surveys suggest that the pace of industrial growth picked up by more than expected last month. This was largely thanks to improving supply chain conditions and lower raw material prices. Meanwhile, services activity rebounded somewhat as containment measures were eased. But the PMIs suggest foreign demand is cooling. Taken together with problems in the property sector, this is set to weigh on industry. And China’s zero-COVID strategy will continue to hold back a further recovery in services.

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Nov.)

Industry in China continued to rebound last month from disruptions caused by power shortages while the recovery in services activity was held back by renewed virus outbreaks. A new COVID outbreak in Zhejiang is again triggering local restrictions and factory shutdowns, while troubles in the property sector are likely to hold back property construction for some time. Policy easing will only cushion the resulting slowdown in the coming months.

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)

Broad credit growth edged up for the first time in nine months in November. Given increased policy support we think the recent slowdown in lending has come to an end. But we think officials will seek to avoid a sharp rebound in borrowing.

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.)

Consumer price inflation rose above 2% for the first time in over a year last month. But this was almost entirely due to food prices. Core inflation remains subdued and producer prices have levelled off.

9 December 2021
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