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China Data Response

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (May)

The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in both Shanghai and Beijing means that the risk of relapse remains. And the latest data also underline that the recovery in consumer activity still has a longer way to go than that in industry.

15 June 2022

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)

Credit growth was stronger than expected last month. It is likely to accelerate following the clear signal in late May that policymakers want banks to step up lending. More policy easing is likely. But private sector credit demand is likely to remain subdued while, on current budgetary plans, local government borrowing is about to slow. A dramatic increase in credit growth still seems unlikely.

10 June 2022

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (May)

Consumer price inflation was unchanged last month and remains well below the government’s target of 3%, while producer price inflation dropped to its lowest in a year. As such, inflation is unlikely to be a constraint on policy action by the PBOC.

10 June 2022
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China Data Response

China Trade (May)

Export and import y/y growth picked up last month. In volume terms, exports rebounded while imports were largely unchanged. We think outbound shipments will soften again before long amid growing headwinds, while imports are set to remain weak.

China Data Response

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

The Caixin manufacturing index published today rebounded last month thanks to the easing of virus containment measures. Taken together with the official survey, they suggest that a recovery in industrial output is underway. But we think it is likely to remain weak amid softening foreign demand.

China Data Response

China Official PMIs (May)

The official PMIs add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound as containment measures were rolled back. That said, the recovery is likely to remain tepid amid weak external demand and labour market strains.

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Apr.)

The April data were even weaker than expected and are consistent with a sharp contraction in economic activity. Provided that the virus situation continues to improve, the economy should begin to rebound this month. But the recovery is likely to be tepid.

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)

Lending was much weaker than expected last month as lockdowns weighed on credit demand. This should nudge the PBOC to announce further easing measures soon. But the central bank continues to signal a relatively restrained approach.

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