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China Activity Monitor

China Activity Monitor

Economy pushed backwards by Omicron

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that lockdowns in Jilin and Shenzhen triggered an outright contraction in the economy in March, even before restrictions were tightened in Shanghai and disruption to domestic freight traffic intensified this month.

27 April 2022

China Activity Monitor

A stronger start to 2022 gives way to fresh weakness

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy started the year on a stronger footing than it ended 2021. But these gains are already being derailed by China’s worst virus outbreak since Wuhan. Long Run Outlook Drop-In (23 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): What will be the lasting impacts of the war in Ukraine? What legacies will the pandemic leave? What does a future of higher inflation mean for economies and markets? Neil Shearing hosts this special discussion with senior economists about the long-term investing outlook on Wednesday. Register here.

22 March 2022

China Activity Monitor

Starting 2022 on the back foot

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which continue to depress service sector activity. We think these headwinds will continue to hold back activity during the first half of this year.

24 January 2022
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China Activity Monitor

Virus disruption compounding property strains

China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year well below the pre-pandemic path as a boom in construction activity has gone into reverse and small but recurrent COVID outbreaks continue to depress service sector activity. These headwinds will continue into 2022.

China Activity Monitor

Service sector recovery remains lacklustre

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound remains lacklustre, with output still well below June’s peak. And while the outlook for home sales and exports has brightened in recent weeks, cooling construction activity still looks set to weigh on growth next year.

China Activity Monitor

Services recovering but outlook still gloomy

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that output rebounded last month as the disruption to the service sector from virus outbreaks eased. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp contraction last quarter. And even if services activity holds up better moving forward, the headwinds facing construction and industry mean that growth will be lacklustre over the coming year.

China Activity Monitor

Delta blow to give way to property downturn

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output dropped back sharply in August. The big hit to services activity from efforts to contain the Delta variant should mostly reverse this month. But the downturn in the property sector has further to run.

27 September 2021

China Activity Monitor

Delta speed bump not the only drag

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came from industry and construction, where the key headwinds are tight credit conditions and supply bottlenecks.

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