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US equities still at the mercy of the bond market

Today’s early pull-back in the US stock market is a reminder that good news for the economy can be bad news for equities when it leads to a reassessment of the outlook for bonds. Nonetheless, the renewed surge in government bond yields that initially followed the strong employment report has mainly unwound and the stock market has also regained ground. Our forecast is that yields won’t rise sharply in the coming months, enabling equity prices to recover further in time.

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