Capital Daily

Capital Daily

Capital Daily

We expect further US dollar appreciation

We think that the surge in the US dollar which has followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is a sign of things to come.

18 June 2021

Capital Daily

Three key points on the fallout from the FOMC

The market reaction to the Fed’s optimistic assessment of the economic outlook strengthens our conviction that US Treasury yields will end the year significantly higher.

17 June 2021

Capital Daily

We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil

While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be much smaller than in the latter.

16 June 2021
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Capital Daily

Treasury yields and US stock market rotation

We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue.

Capital Daily

DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar

We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over the next few years. This underpins our forecast for the US dollar to strengthen against most currencies.

Capital Daily

Trying to make sense of the rally in Treasuries

The recent decline in US Treasury yields in the face of very strong inflation numbers and broader signs of building price pressures is surprising, and we doubt that it will last.

Capital Daily

Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields

Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We expect yields to rise in the euro-zone as well, but by less than in the US. Today’s ECB decision supports this view.

Capital Daily

We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength

Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect.

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