Capital Daily

Capital Daily

Trying to make sense of the rally in Treasuries

The recent decline in US Treasury yields in the face of very strong inflation numbers and broader signs of building price pressures is surprising, and we doubt that it will last.

11 June 2021

Capital Daily

Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields

Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We expect yields to rise in the euro-zone as well, but by less than in the US. Today’s ECB decision supports this view.

10 June 2021

Capital Daily

We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength

Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect.

9 June 2021
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