A vaccine wouldn’t have a large impact on domestic demand in New Zealand as the virus has been almost eradicated, but it would allow Australia to reopen its services sector at a faster pace. However, New Zealand should benefit much more from the reopening of the border given its large tourism sector. If a vaccine became available by early next year, we would revise up our 2021 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand by a larger margin than our forecast for Australia.
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