Retail Sales & International Trade (Jan.)
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Retail Sales & International Trade (Jan.)

The soft growth in retail sales in January means that weakness in consumption at the end of 2018 probably continued into 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may not support GDP as much as implied by the large trade surplus, as it was driven, at least in part, by commodity prices.
Michelle Lew Administrator
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Australia & New Zealand Data Response

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The strong rise in retail sales in May highlights the strength in the Australian economy and is consistent with our view that the RBA will continue to hike rates aggressively in the months ahead.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably lift the cash rate by another 50bp in July and August before reverting to smaller 25bp hikes. However, the risks are tilted towards a prolonged period of aggressive tightening and rates may well peak above our current forecast of 3%.

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More from Michelle Lew

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought

The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think the unemployment rate is more likely to rise this year than to fall. That’s why we expect the RBA to cut rates to 0.75% before the end of the year.

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Japan Data Response

Machinery Orders (Apr.)

While machinery orders rose for the third straight month in April, we still expect business investment growth to slow this year as rising uncertainty over the economic outlook takes its toll.

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China Data Response

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While exports rose in May, weaker global demand and the escalating trade war suggest that they will start to fall again before long.

10 June 2019
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