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Australia & New Zealand

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2022)

While the unemployment rate held steady at a 48-year low in April, the slowdown in employment growth and the sluggishness of wage growth will probably convince the RBA to hike rates by 25bp next month rather than the 40bp some are anticipating.  

19 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q1)

The unchanged pace of quarterly wage growth in Q1 should ensure the RBA won’t accelerate its hiking cycle just yet. But with the labour market still tightening and inflation still rising, we think wage growth will increase further in the quarters ahead. ANZ Drop-in (18th May, 07:00 BST/14:00 SGT): Join economists from our Australia and Markets services shortly after the release of Q1 labour market data for a discussion about the Australian growth, inflation and monetary policy outlook. Register now.

18 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Mar. 2022)

The rise in the trade balance in March won’t be enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q1. In the months ahead higher export prices due to the war in Ukraine should lift the trade surplus even higher.

5 May 2022
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Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2022)

Retail sales defied the weakness in consumer confidence in March and with the household savings rate still high, we expect consumption to keep expanding at a strong pace.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2022)

The continued tightness in the New Zealand labour market despite the omicron outbreak provides further evidence that the economy is still running hot. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 50 basis points in May.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2022)

Inflation surged in Q1 and is on track to surpass 6% later this year, exceeding the levels reached around the GST hike in 2000. With trimmed mean inflation already higher than at the start of previous tightening cycles, the Reserve Bank of Australia may opt for a 50bp hike at its June meeting.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2022)

The 1.8% q/q rise in consumer prices in Q1 was broadly in line with the RBNZ’s expectations, which reduces the likelihood of another 50 basis point hike in the OCR in May. But we still think high inflation throughout 2022 will drive the RBNZ to hike rates to 3.0% by the end of the year.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2022)

The unemployment rate remaining at its joint lowest rate since the 1970s should be enough to keep the RBA on track to begin hiking rates in June.

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