South Africa after the unrest

There are signs that the worst of the violence and unrest that has gripped South Africa this week may be over. Any hit to economic activity is unlikely to be long-lasting but the risk that the government’s austerity plans are watered down has increased.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations

This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination race. Meanwhile, although we expect the fallout from the Evergrande saga to be limited, the region’s metal producers like South Africa are exposed to weakness in China’s property sector. Finally, there has been some momentum towards a debt restructuring deal for Ethiopia, but this will probably be difficult to thrash out.

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SARB to keep loose policy stance to bolster recovery

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Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic recovery mean that we expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold on Thursday and well into 2022.

22 September 2021

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Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT in no rush to lower interest rates

Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left interest rates on hold at 19.00% today and, with inflation set to rise further in July from a two-year high last month and the economy bouncing back quickly from the three-week lockdown in May, we think that an easing cycle is unlikely to begin until late this year.

14 July 2021

Africa Economics Update

Assessing the impact of the unrest in South Africa

There is clearly a lot of uncertainty over how the protests in South Africa in recent days will develop but there are reasons to think that the impact on economic activity will be towards the milder end of the spectrum. Perhaps a bigger risk is that the protests signal broader discontent with the current weakness of the economy, limiting the government’s ability to push through austerity and put the public debt position back on to a sustainable path.

13 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May)

Turkey’s activity figures for May, the month of a three-week national lockdown, showed that the industrial sector came through unscathed but that retail sales were hit hard. More timely evidence suggests that activity has rebounded quickly and, combined with the rise in inflation to a two-year high in June, means that the central bank will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow.

13 July 2021
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