SA wage negotiations, Ethiopia debt restructuring

South Africa’s government is giving up further ground in wage negotiations with trade unions, raising the threat that the austerity plans unravel. Elsewhere, Ethiopia has revealed plans to restructure $1bn of external debt and with the “Common Framework” struggling to accelerate a broader restructuring, the risk of a disorderly default is rising.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations

This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination race. Meanwhile, although we expect the fallout from the Evergrande saga to be limited, the region’s metal producers like South Africa are exposed to weakness in China’s property sector. Finally, there has been some momentum towards a debt restructuring deal for Ethiopia, but this will probably be difficult to thrash out.

24 September 2021

Africa Economics Update

SARB to keep loose policy stance to bolster recovery

Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and concerns about lasting economic damage from the pandemic and recent unrest appear to be growing. Against a backdrop of a sluggish recovery and weak inflation, we think the repo rate will stay on hold until well into 2022.

23 September 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic recovery mean that we expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold on Thursday and well into 2022.

22 September 2021

More from Jason Tuvey

Emerging Europe Economics Update

NBP in no rush to tighten policy

Poland’s central bank left interest rates on hold today and, while it revised up its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, there was little sign in the accompanying press statement that the balance on the MPC has shifted further away from the ultra-dovish stance of the past year. We doubt that there will be a majority in favour of raising interest rates until mid-2022 at the earliest.

8 July 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts

Turkish inflation hit a two-year high in June and recent domestic energy price hikes will cause it to rise even further over the next couple of months. High inflation and signs of a quick recovery from May’s lockdown mean that the central bank will probably delay the start of its easing cycle until later this year. We now expect the one-week repo rate to be lowered to 17.00% by end-2021 (previously 14.00%).

7 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The fresh rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 17.5% y/y in June, coupled with signs of a strong rebound in activity after May’s three-week lockdown, means that an interest rate cut in the next couple of months is increasingly unlikely. An easing cycle is now more likely to commence later this year when inflation looks set to fall sharply.

5 July 2021
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