Africa

Africa Data Response

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response.

17 January 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate rose to a slightly stronger-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November but, with core price pressures remaining soft and the economy struggling even before the latest Omicron-driven virus wave, it seems more likely than not that the monetary tightening cycle will be paused in January. Further out, we think that interest rates will rise more slowly than investors currently expect. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

15 December 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Oct.)

South Africa’s hard activity data for October confirm that the economy was struggling even before the emergence of a fourth virus wave, which will probably dampen activity further. In light of this, policymakers at the Reserve Bank will be in no rush to tighten monetary policy aggressively.

9 December 2021
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Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q3)

South Africa’s GDP contracted by 1.5% q/q in Q3 as violent unrest and a third virus wave hit the economy hard, and the more recent data suggest that activity remained depressed even before the latest rise in COVID-19 cases driven by the Omicron variant. Against this backdrop, monetary policy tightening is unlikely to be as aggressive as most currently anticipate.

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider economy.

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q3)

The drop in Nigeria’s GDP growth to 4.0% y/y in Q3 points to the recovery in activity outside the key oil sector petering out. We think this will continue over the coming quarters, weighing on headline growth even as oil output gradually picks up.

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Sep.)

South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to output continuing to rebound in the sectors hardest hit by violent unrest in July. But the economy probably still contracted over Q3 as a whole, and we think that the Reserve Bank will keep the benchmark interest rate on hold this week to support the stumbling recovery and normalise monetary policy more slowly than most expect over 2022-23.

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate stayed at 5.0% y/y in October, with underlying price pressures remaining soft. That, combined with the fragile economic recovery, supports our view that the Reserve Bank will probably opt to keep rates on hold on Thursday and only normalise monetary policy gradually.

17 November 2021
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