Africa

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response.

17 January 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict

Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC already appear to be gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a looser direction, worsening the country’s debt problems. Debt concerns are also building in Ghana and remain elevated in Ethiopia as well, even though there are signs that the internal conflict is abating.

14 January 2022

Africa Economics Update

What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will rise more quickly than most anticipate. Debt risks are also likely to build in other parts of the region. Meanwhile, Nigerian officials will probably double down on their unorthodox policies. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

Key Forecasts

Table 3: GDP & Consumer Prices (% y/y)

Share of

World 1

GDP

Inflation

2020

2021e

2022f

2023f

2020

2021e

2022f

2023f

Nigeria

0.81

-1.8

2.8

3.0

2.8

13.2

16.8

14.0

12.5

South Africa

0.60

-6.4

4.5

1.8

1.8

3.3

4.5

4.5

4.3

Ethiopia2

0.21

6.1

2.0

7.0

5.5

19.9

20.2

30.5

16.0

Kenya

0.19

-0.3

6.3

6.0

5.5

4.8

6.3

6.0

5.3

Angola

0.16

-5.4

-1.3

4.5

1.5

22.3

25.5

21.0

15.5

Ghana

0.14

0.4

3.8

6.0

5.0

9.9

9.5

9.8

8.0

Tanzania

0.13

2.0

6.5

5.5

5.0

3.3

3.5

4.5

4.0

Côte d'Ivoire

0.11

2.0

7.5

7.0

7.0

2.4

3.8

1.0

0.8

Uganda

0.08

-1.6

7.0

6.0

5.5

2.7

2.0

2.5

3.0

Zambia

0.05

-3.0

3.3

2.5

2.3

15.7

22.3

12.0

10.5

Botswana

0.03

-7.9

10.0

5.0

4.8

1.9

6.5

5.0

3.8

Mozambique

0.03

-1.2

3.0

4.0

4.5

3.1

5.8

6.8

5.8

Rwanda

0.02

-3.4

9.5

7.5

8.5

9.9

0.0

2.5

4.3

Mauritius

0.02

-14.9

8.0

5.0

4.5

2.5

3.8

4.0

3.0

Namibia

0.02

-8.5

1.8

4.3

4.0

2.2

3.5

4.0

4.3

Sub-Saharan Africa

2.6

-2.3

4.0

4.0

3.5

9.5

11.4

10.9

8.7

Sources: Refinitiv, National Sources, Capital Economics. 1) % of GDP, 2020, PPP terms (IMF estimates); 2) Fiscal Years.


ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict

Africa Economics Weekly

19 January 2022

Our view

Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal policy. As a result, rebounds in most economies will lag behind other EMs. Persistent oil woes will hold back recoveries in Africa’s major producers Nigeria and Angola. In South Africa, even as the policy normalisation cycle nears, the monetary stance is likely to remain more accommodative than most analysts currently anticipate. And we think that an earlier outburst of violent unrest and the ruling party’s poor showing in recent elections will increasingly tilt the direction of fiscal policy away from austerity. While South Africa’s debt problem is not acute, sovereign debt risks have increased considerably in Ethiopia with the escalation of an internal conflict.

Latest Outlook

Africa Economic Outlook

Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying

Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal policy. As a result, rebounds in most economies will lag behind other EMs. Sovereign debt risks look acute in Ethiopia and are growing in Ghana, while South Africa faces a slow-burning problem.

27 October 2021