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Drop-In: A hawkish ECB surprise? (24th May)

Key Research and latest developments

Central Bank Securities Holdings (% of GDP)

Global Central Bank Watch

Balance sheet policy set to diverge

The focus of recent weeks has been on the pace and synchronisation of interest rate hikes, with almost all major central banks now engaged or set to engage in tightening cycles and many taking an increasingly hawkish stance. But the standard commentary often misses the marked divergence in balance sheet plans which is taking shape. While the US Fed and Bank of England seem set to pare back their asset holdings quickly, the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand will take it slower. And with the ECB and Bank of Japan sitting on the sidelines or even buying more assets, the global impact of quantitative tightening need not be as bad as many fear.

18 May 2022

Capital Calls

Our macro calls. Their market implications.

Pressure on equities, rising dollar, rallying China bonds and more

Global Markets Update

Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500

Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have som...

19 May 2022

China Economics Update

Policy easing stepping up

The State Council has announced support measures totalling 1.7% of GDP...

24 May 2022

Most Recent Alerts

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Global Economics Update

Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth

4 hours ago

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ confirms hiking cycle to be followed by cuts

7 hours ago

Emerging Asia Data Response

Singapore GDP (Q1, revised)

16 hours ago

European Economics Update

Answers to your questions on the ECB

17 hours ago

Global Economics Update

PMIs: Orders slowing and price pressures still acute

18 hours ago

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Apr.)

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Capital Calls

The big picture

The global recovery will continue to disappoint, with growth well below consensu...

10 May 2022

Developed markets

Equity markets will remain under pressure The combination of hawkish central ba...

23 May 2022

Emerging markets

Financial contagion from the Russia-Ukraine war will remain limited Sanctions a...

10 May 2022

Key Themes