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Omicron – Key analysis on economic impact of latest variant

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Fed Funds Rate Forecasts (%)

US Fed Watch

Fed pivot will take rates to more than 1.5% in 2023

In sharp contrast to the surprisingly dovish November meeting, we expect Fed officials will use their December meeting to lay the ground for markedly tighter policy in the years ahead. The characterisation of inflation as “transitory” will be retired from the policy statement and the pace of tapering will be stepped up, with asset purchases now set to end next spring, rather than summer. In response to the Fed’s hawkish shift, we are revising our interest rate forecasts markedly higher. Rather than waiting until 2023, we now expect the Fed to hike rates twice in 2022, followed by four hikes in 2023, in a tightening cycle that will take rates to more than 2% by mid-2024.

8 December 2021

TURKEY'S CURRENCY CRISIS

The lira's collapse: Key analysis and forecasts

Read all our key coverage on the macro and market risks of the crisis ...

European Economics Update

Revising down our Q4 growth forecast

Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be...

8 December 2021

China Economics Update

RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow?

The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required rese...

6 December 2021

Most Recent Alerts

7 hours ago

Global Economics Update

COVID Recovery Monitor

7 hours ago

US Economics Update

Labour market slack falling to generational lows

8 hours ago

European Economics Update

Revising down our Q4 growth forecast

8 hours ago

Emerging Europe Economics Update

NBP slows tightening, but steps up hawkish rhetoric

8 hours ago

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

8 hours ago

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.)

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Capital Calls

The big picture

The global economic recovery will continue, but at a slower pace, as supply cons...

18 October 2021

Developed markets

Yields of long-dated bonds will rise further in the US than elsewhere  The reb...

25 November 2021

Emerging markets

China’s government bonds will rally even as those elsewhere sell off  Given our...

18 October 2021

Key Themes