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Capital Economics - 凯投宏观

China Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - Imports as well as exports look suspicious

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The view from the ground – Q1 2015Low birth rate won’t derail growthWhat impact would deposit rate liberalisation have?Bumps in the road but no fiscal cliffInitial thoughts on the National People’s CongressRate cut alone won't boost lendingHong Kong set for rebound in the year of the sheepCould Hong Kong survive a property market collapse?Should we fear deflation in China?PBOC signals continued policy support
How durable is the Hong Kong peg?How much does today’s slide in Shanghai matter?No end in sight to build-up in China's credit risksChina's GDP set for statistical boostWealth management product risks under spotlightWhat is behind the surge in Shanghai equities?China switches tack with rate cut boost for larger firmsHow big a deal is the Shanghai Connect scheme?Imports as well as exports look suspiciousFourth Plenum signals next phase of anti-graft efforts
Will falling house prices hurt consumption?“Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economyInflation Monitor (Oct.)Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy?How much does Hong Kong matter to China?What next for Hong Kong?Would policy change under a new PBOC governor?The view from the ground – Q3 2014Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shiftHealthy labour market keeping policymakers calm
Productivity has not gone into reverseInflation Monitor (Sep.)New light on government borrowingHong Kong's economy should rebound from Q2 dropA softer start to Q3Inflation Monitor (Aug.)China set to take next step towards deposit rate liberalisationQ2 growth edges up on policy fine-tuningInflation Monitor (Jul.)Further slowdown likely but no hard landing
The view from the ground – Q2 2014FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisisWhat is the PBOC up to?Partial RRR cut illustrates reluctance to ease policyPolicymakers still resisting calls for broad stimulusInflation Monitor (Jun.14)Local government dependence on property exaggeratedA positive step on local government debtInflation Monitor (May 14)China’s tourism deficit offsetting surplus in goods trade
A broad RRR cut is unlikely to come soonFears of a hard-landing overdoneA new route for foreigners to invest in China’s equitiesInflation Monitor (Apr.)Rehashed spending commitments don’t equal stimulusSecond bond default signals normalisation, not crisisOnline spending giving hidden boost to retail salesThe view from the ground - Q1 2014Wider currency band doesn't shift fundamentalsAre China’s exporters struggling to compete?
Premier Li shrugs off slowdown concernsOnline funds pushing interest rate liberalisation forwardHeadline shrink in exports is misleadingWhat if growth falls below 7.5%?Initial thoughts on the National People’s CongressInflation Monitor (Mar.13)Can private investment shake-up China's state sector?Wider currency band is not the goalHong Kong set for gradual recoveryMore volatility ahead for the renminbi
Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates?Fiscal drag to add to growth concernsInflation Monitor (Feb.)People’s Bank signals credit risks remain prime concernOutlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowingShrinking workforce not a major growth riskSlowdown continuing into 2014Why the hukou matters less than many thinkFirst appearances deceptiveInflation Monitor (Jan.)
Large-scale currency intervention set to continueThe view from the ground – Q4 2013People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisationInflation Monitor (Dec.)How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track?What does the Plenum mean for China’s growth?Land reform set to boost rural incomesReform package exceeds expectationsSubdued recovery in Hong KongNo “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum
State sector pulls backPositive signs on foreign demandInflation Monitor (Nov 13.)As good as it gets?How long will the Hong Kong peg last?People’s Bank accelerates its foreign exchange purchasesWelcome slowdown in credit, but inflation risingInflation Monitor (Oct.)Can Shanghai become a global financial centre?Service sector reform edges further forward
China’s unwelcome reboundThe view from the ground – Q3 2013How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone?Encouraging signs on inflation and foreign demandInflation Monitor (Sep.)Growth in Hong Kong set for gradual recoveryEasing of one-child policy unlikely to alter growth outlookChinese recovery built on weak foundationsTrade data add to evidence of renewed pick-up in investmentInflation Monitor (Jul 13.)
A welcome light on China’s government debtRenminbi set to climb further this year and beyondImbalances widen, despite slowdownWhat is the government’s bottom line for growth?Export slump points to faltering demandInflation Monitor (Jun.)China embraces reform – and slower growthReckless policymaking hints at appetite for reformThe view from the ground - Q2 2013Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns
Rebound remains elusiveInflation Monitor (May)Renminbi surge undermines case for capital account openingStill subdued in AprilGrowth in Hong Kong to remain lacklustreCalendar effects inflate trade dataInflation Monitor (Apr. 13)Consumption stimulus should not be welcomedHopes for sustained recovery fadeExports slow but imports accelerate
Inflation Monitor (Mar.)China moves to manage shadow banking risksThe view from the ground – Q1 2013First thoughts on Premier Li KeqiangNew leadership edging forward with reformEconomic rebound may already be stallingDemand strong from overseas but appears weaker at homeInflation Monitor (Feb. 13)Housing still on unsustainable pathSigns of recovery in Hong Kong, but risks to downside
PBC tilts towards tighteningHooked on creditSurge in credit causes headache for policymakersInflation Monitor (Jan.)Income inequality is an economic as well as social issueEconomy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubtChina's share of global FDI rising, not fallingStalling credit growth points to limited economic reboundInflation Monitor (Dec.)The view from the ground - Q4 2012