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Capital Economics - 凯投宏观

China Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - China moves to manage shadow banking risks

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A broad RRR cut is unlikely to come soonFears of a hard-landing overdoneA new route for foreigners to invest in China’s equitiesInflation Monitor (Apr.)Rehashed spending commitments don’t equal stimulusSecond bond default signals normalisation, not crisisOnline spending giving hidden boost to retail salesThe view from the ground - Q1 2014Are China’s exporters struggling to compete?Premier Li shrugs off slowdown concerns
Online funds pushing interest rate liberalisation forwardHeadline shrink in exports is misleadingWhat if growth falls below 7.5%?Initial thoughts on the National People’s CongressInflation Monitor (Mar.13)Can private investment shake-up China's state sector?Wider currency band is not the goalHong Kong set for gradual recoveryMore volatility ahead for the renminbiWould Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates?
Fiscal drag to add to growth concernsInflation Monitor (Feb.)People’s Bank signals credit risks remain prime concernOutlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowingShrinking workforce not a major growth riskSlowdown continuing into 2014Why the hukou matters less than many thinkFirst appearances deceptiveInflation Monitor (Jan.)Large-scale currency intervention set to continue
The view from the ground – Q4 2013People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisationInflation Monitor (Dec.)How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track?What does the Plenum mean for China’s growth?Land reform set to boost rural incomesReform package exceeds expectationsSubdued recovery in Hong KongNo “Master Plan” so far from Third PlenumState sector pulls back
Positive signs on foreign demandInflation Monitor (Nov 13.)As good as it gets?How long will the Hong Kong peg last?People’s Bank accelerates its foreign exchange purchasesWelcome slowdown in credit, but inflation risingInflation Monitor (Oct.)Can Shanghai become a global financial centre?Service sector reform edges further forwardChina’s unwelcome rebound
The view from the ground – Q3 2013How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone?Encouraging signs on inflation and foreign demandInflation Monitor (Sep.)Growth in Hong Kong set for gradual recoveryEasing of one-child policy unlikely to alter growth outlookChinese recovery built on weak foundationsTrade data add to evidence of renewed pick-up in investmentInflation Monitor (Jul 13.)A welcome light on China’s government debt
Renminbi set to climb further this year and beyondImbalances widen, despite slowdownWhat is the government’s bottom line for growth?Export slump points to faltering demandInflation Monitor (Jun.)China embraces reform – and slower growthReckless policymaking hints at appetite for reformThe view from the ground - Q2 2013Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concernsRebound remains elusive
Inflation Monitor (May)Renminbi surge undermines case for capital account openingStill subdued in AprilGrowth in Hong Kong to remain lacklustreCalendar effects inflate trade dataInflation Monitor (Apr. 13)Consumption stimulus should not be welcomedHopes for sustained recovery fadeExports slow but imports accelerateInflation Monitor (Mar.)
China moves to manage shadow banking risksThe view from the ground – Q1 2013First thoughts on Premier Li KeqiangNew leadership edging forward with reformEconomic rebound may already be stallingDemand strong from overseas but appears weaker at homeInflation Monitor (Feb. 13)Housing still on unsustainable pathSigns of recovery in Hong Kong, but risks to downsidePBC tilts towards tightening
Hooked on creditSurge in credit causes headache for policymakersInflation Monitor (Jan.)Income inequality is an economic as well as social issueEconomy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubtChina's share of global FDI rising, not fallingStalling credit growth points to limited economic reboundInflation Monitor (Dec.)The view from the ground - Q4 2012Hong Kong's low unemployment no support for domestic demand
The US fiscal cliff: implications for AsiaFirst test of new leadership's appetite for reformSigns economic recovery is falteringInflation Monitor (Nov.)PBC foreign exchange purchases set to resumeChina's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wagesSlow growth in Hong Kong set to continue into 2013New line-up dents but doesn’t derail hopes of reformShould we worry about pork prices again?Slow loan growth no concern given signs of economic recovery
Is the October surprise too good to be true?Are rising wages hurting China's exporters?China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US electionInflation Monitor (Oct.)“Currency manipulation” tag would still carry weightFalse dawn for propertyEconomy stabilising, on course for weak recoveryPain of China’s slowdown is spread unevenlyImports point to continued weakness at end-Q3Consumption-led rebound remains wishful thinking
Inflation Monitor (Sep.)Is slower growth here to stay?Is the stimulus real?Hong Kong property still heading for a crashGrowth expectations edge downInflation Monitor (Aug.)Can the economy recover without a rebound in property?Further reserve requirement cuts still likelyWhy is investment not rebounding?Hong Kong economy unlikely to rebound anytime soon
Economic rebound remains elusiveCapital outflows still under controlLocal governments’ stimulus won’t fuel a sharp reboundInflation Monitor (Jul.12)Higher food prices alone won’t derail China’s economyLending set to fuel investment-led rebound in short-termProperty risks remainSecond rate cut points to deepening growth concernsInflation Monitor (Jun.)The view from the ground - Q2 2012
Property outlook brightensHow long will the Hong Kong peg last?Banks respond to stimulus call as economy stabilisesInflation Monitor (May)Interest rate cuts underline determination to shore up growthWho in Asia is most vulnerable to a hard landing in China?China's stimulus dilemmaStimulus set to fuel recoveryRequired reserve ratio cut not enough to trigger reboundHong Kong falters in Q1