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Capital Economics - 凯投宏观

China Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - Imports as well as exports look suspicious

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Little chance of a Hong Kong de-peggingPolicymakers put focus on supporting economy, not marketPanic about China is overblown“National Team” strategy looking tarnishedRMB set to stabilise as PBOC counters devaluation claimsChina is not declaring a “currency war”Talk of major policy shift toward RMB devaluation overblownImports hint at policy-driven pick-up in demandProperty market should shrug off equity price fallsChina set for further widening of renminbi band
Policy support to counter growth risks from property, equitiesLongstanding error still exaggerating GDP growthGrowth stabilises on brokerage boom, policy easingWhy stock market gyrations don’t affect consumptionLeadership rattled but not reversing course on reformChina puts faith in market meddlingWhat can policymakers do now?Economic downside from equity collapse underappreciatedScrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t boost bank lendingThe view from the ground – Q2 2015
Severe demographic headwinds to hold back Hong KongLocal government debt swap doubledMore evidence GDP growth overstatedFiscal policy to be more supportive in coming quartersDeposit rate liberalisation still on trackChinese tourists to keep current account surplus in checkPBOC injects another 25bp of supportGains from migration haven’t been exhaustedIs the People’s Bank about to launch QE?Equity boom propping up GDP growth, for now
Will curb on visitors hurt Hong Kong’s economy?Headwinds to continue weighing on growth in 2015Outbound FDI won't eclipse inward FDI any time soonThe view from the ground – Q1 2015Low birth rate won’t derail growthWhat impact would deposit rate liberalisation have?Bumps in the road but no fiscal cliffInitial thoughts on the National People’s CongressRate cut alone won't boost lendingHong Kong set for rebound in the year of the sheep
Could Hong Kong survive a property market collapse?Should we fear deflation in China?PBOC signals continued policy supportHow durable is the Hong Kong peg?How much does today’s slide in Shanghai matter?No end in sight to build-up in China's credit risksChina's GDP set for statistical boostWealth management product risks under spotlightWhat is behind the surge in Shanghai equities?China switches tack with rate cut boost for larger firms
How big a deal is the Shanghai Connect scheme?Imports as well as exports look suspiciousFourth Plenum signals next phase of anti-graft effortsWill falling house prices hurt consumption?“Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economyInflation Monitor (Oct.)Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy?How much does Hong Kong matter to China?What next for Hong Kong?Would policy change under a new PBOC governor?
The view from the ground – Q3 2014Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shiftHealthy labour market keeping policymakers calmProductivity has not gone into reverseInflation Monitor (Sep.)New light on government borrowingHong Kong's economy should rebound from Q2 dropA softer start to Q3Inflation Monitor (Aug.)China set to take next step towards deposit rate liberalisation
Q2 growth edges up on policy fine-tuningInflation Monitor (Jul.)Further slowdown likely but no hard landingThe view from the ground – Q2 2014FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisisWhat is the PBOC up to?Partial RRR cut illustrates reluctance to ease policyPolicymakers still resisting calls for broad stimulusInflation Monitor (Jun.14)Local government dependence on property exaggerated
A positive step on local government debtInflation Monitor (May 14)China’s tourism deficit offsetting surplus in goods tradeA broad RRR cut is unlikely to come soonFears of a hard-landing overdoneA new route for foreigners to invest in China’s equitiesInflation Monitor (Apr.)Rehashed spending commitments don’t equal stimulusSecond bond default signals normalisation, not crisisOnline spending giving hidden boost to retail sales
The view from the ground - Q1 2014Wider currency band doesn't shift fundamentalsAre China’s exporters struggling to compete?Premier Li shrugs off slowdown concernsOnline funds pushing interest rate liberalisation forwardHeadline shrink in exports is misleadingWhat if growth falls below 7.5%?Initial thoughts on the National People’s CongressInflation Monitor (Mar.13)Can private investment shake-up China's state sector?
Wider currency band is not the goalHong Kong set for gradual recoveryMore volatility ahead for the renminbiWould Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates?Fiscal drag to add to growth concernsInflation Monitor (Feb.)People’s Bank signals credit risks remain prime concernOutlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowingShrinking workforce not a major growth riskSlowdown continuing into 2014
Why the hukou matters less than many thinkFirst appearances deceptiveInflation Monitor (Jan.)Large-scale currency intervention set to continueThe view from the ground – Q4 2013People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisationInflation Monitor (Dec.)How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track?What does the Plenum mean for China’s growth?Land reform set to boost rural incomes
Reform package exceeds expectationsSubdued recovery in Hong KongNo “Master Plan” so far from Third PlenumState sector pulls backPositive signs on foreign demandInflation Monitor (Nov 13.)As good as it gets?How long will the Hong Kong peg last?People’s Bank accelerates its foreign exchange purchasesWelcome slowdown in credit, but inflation rising
Inflation Monitor (Oct.)Can Shanghai become a global financial centre?Service sector reform edges further forwardChina’s unwelcome reboundThe view from the ground – Q3 2013How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone?Encouraging signs on inflation and foreign demandInflation Monitor (Sep.)Growth in Hong Kong set for gradual recoveryEasing of one-child policy unlikely to alter growth outlook
Chinese recovery built on weak foundationsTrade data add to evidence of renewed pick-up in investmentInflation Monitor (Jul 13.)A welcome light on China’s government debtRenminbi set to climb further this year and beyondImbalances widen, despite slowdownWhat is the government’s bottom line for growth?Export slump points to faltering demandInflation Monitor (Jun.)China embraces reform – and slower growth