Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2025) The August manufacturing and wholesale sales data were not as bad as feared, and suggest that despite the 1.0% m/m fall, the tentative manufacturing recovery that we’ve seen since June hasn’t... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2025) The broad-based jump in employment in September reversed much of the weakness in prior months and will help reassure policymakers that they can afford to focus on the upside risks to inflation for now... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2025) The worsening in Canada’s goods trade balance in August was for all the wrong reasons, with exports falling and imports rising. Admittedly, unwrought gold played a notable role in flows in either... 7th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2025) Although July GDP surprised to the upside, the flash estimate that output was unchanged in August will temper any optimism about the economy quickly gaining momentum. While a repeat of the sharp... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The sharp decline in retail sales in July is not as bad as it first looks, with August’s flash estimate pointing to a swift rebound, suggesting the weakness was mostly payback for earlier strength... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today was of little surprise following the recent softer labour market data and easing of upside inflation risks, although the relatively neutral tone of... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) Core goods prices fell in August for the first time this year, which supports our view that the upside risks to inflation have eased considerably in recent months. That suggests the Bank of Canada... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2025) The increases in manufacturing and wholesale sales in July suggest tentative signs of a recovery in two of the sectors hardest hit by US tariffs. Less encouragingly, new orders fell by 2.2%, while the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug. 2025) The second consecutive large fall in employment together with the renewed rise in the unemployment rate underscore that conditions in the labour market remain bleak amid the impact of US tariffs. The... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (July 2025) The rebound in exports in July was broad-based but, with the export order indicators still weak, we suspect it reflects more of an inevitable rebound from recent weakness rather than the start of a... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2025) The contraction in second-quarter GDP was due to a large drag from net trade, which is unlikely to be repeated, but the downward revision to monthly GDP in Jun and preliminary July estimate showing... 29th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (June 2025) The strong rebound in June retail sales should reassure the Bank of Canada that consumer spending is holding up, although the flash estimate of a drop back in sales in July implies that growth remains... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) July’s softer core price data, combined with favourable downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leave the three-month annualised average rate of CPI-trim and CPI-median at a more modest 2.4%... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2025) The small rebound in manufacturing sales in June will provide little relief, given that it barely offsets the weakness in April and May and the breakdown shows that US tariffs still have some sectors... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2025) The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2025) The small deterioration in Canada’s goods trade balance in June was driven by a large one-off import of a module for an offshore oil project in Newfoundland. The deterioration may have reversed in... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
