Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in January was worse than expected but, along with February’s advance estimate for another gain, still paints a more positive picture for household spending than late... 20th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar 2026) The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and that it would look through the Iran war’s immediate... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in February joins last month’s weak Labour Force Survey as reason to think the Bank of Canada will not move to hike rates anytime soon despite the evolving... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb 2026) The rebound in the unemployment rate to 6.7% in February supports our view that, despite the surge in oil prices, the Bank of Canada will be reluctant to discuss a potential return to rate hikes this... 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan. 2026) The plunge in exports in January, together with the large decline in wholesale sales volumes, points to downside risks to the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged at the start of the year. If so... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2025) The 0.6% annualised decline in fourth-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looked, with most of the drag coming from weaker inventory building, whereas domestic demand growth rebounded to more than 2%... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in December confirms that they fell over the quarter a whole, which would have dragged down goods consumption and contributed to the likely weak result for... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in January lends support to our view that it will decline to 2.0% by the middle of the year, which is a faster pace of disinflation than the Bank of Canada... 17th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2025) The pick-up in manufacturing sales in December was largely due to a rebound in auto sales following a temporary disruption in the prior month. While the survey evidence is showing some tentative signs... 16th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan 2026) The 0.3%-pt drop back in the unemployment rate to 6.5% last month came on the back of a large fall in the labour force and in spite of a 25,000 decline in employment. We expect this trend to continue... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov 2025) We now know that GDP probably declined in the fourth quarter, and the monthly data for November is grimmer than first appears, with broad based declines in goods producing industries offset by a... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov 2025) Exports volumes in November are not as bad as first appears, and probably would have risen if not for a plunge in volatile gold exports. Meanwhile, we continue to see tentative signs of Canada... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov 2025) The strong rebound in retail sales in November appears to mostly reflect a temporary boost from Black Friday deals rather than a more lasting pickup in consumer demand, given the 0.5% decline expected... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The second-consecutive below-target monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median should further reduce speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates this year. If anything, coupled with the... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
