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Capital Views

In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the most prominent sign yet of the markedly hawkish shift in recent weeks by global central banks. Policymakers from Australia to India have … Continue reading “In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone”

Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about one quarter of the increase in inflation in advanced economies over the past year, and around one-third of the increase in inflation in emerging economies. Many … Continue reading “Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes”

Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession

Posted by David Wilder | Category : Uncategorised, Capital View.

A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat surging inflation. Investors are spooked. They worry that jacking up interest rates will push economies into recession. After all, tightening cycles have … Continue reading “Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession”

The not-so-good, the bad and the ugly: the outlook for the world’s big three economies

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

We’ve spent a long time arguing that the global economy faces a more difficult outlook than most expect. The consensus is now moving towards our view as evidence of weakness mounts. But, amid the pervasive gloom, it’s worth noting that the three largest economic blocs – the US, euro-zone and China – face challenges that … Continue reading “The not-so-good, the bad and the ugly: the outlook for the world’s big three economies”

Q2 Euro-zone Economic Outlook: No quick fix this time

Posted by David Wilder | Category : Capital View.

Our Q2 European Economic Outlook explains why the ECB is likely to focus on price stability meaning it will end its asset purchases soon and raise rates to positive territory this year. The latest edition of this quarterly report gives you comprehensive analysis of the European economy this year, assessing the key issues that will … Continue reading “Q2 Euro-zone Economic Outlook: No quick fix this time”

Transcript: What rising rates mean for the commercial property outlook

Posted by David Wilder | Category : Capital View.

Aggressive tightening moves from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are shaking up the outlook for commercial property returns. In a 19th May online briefing, Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and colleagues Amy Wood and Kiran Raichura discussed our latest forecasts for yields and returns. The following are extracts from that … Continue reading “Transcript: What rising rates mean for the commercial property outlook”

Whipping inflation doesn’t necessarily require a recession – but some may not get a choice

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

A debate is raging among market participants about whether inflation has accelerated to such an extent that a recession has now become necessary in order to bring it back down.  As we explained in a piece published last week, the answer depends to a large extent on how much of the rise in inflation has … Continue reading “Whipping inflation doesn’t necessarily require a recession – but some may not get a choice”

In this new age of uncertainty, central banks should double down on inflation targeting

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

25 years ago this month the Bank of England was granted operational independence by the then-Chancellor Gordon Brown. Uncomfortably for current members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the anniversary coincides with a new set of forecasts by the Bank’s staff showing that UK inflation is on track to hit 10% by the end of this … Continue reading “In this new age of uncertainty, central banks should double down on inflation targeting”

Q2 Global Economic Outlook: Paying the Price of High Inflation

Posted by David Wilder | Category : Capital View.

Our Q2 Global Economic Outlook warns that the world economy faces higher inflation and weaker growth than many forecasters expect this year. The latest edition of this quarterly report provides crucial insight into the global outlook, exploring the impact of the war in Ukraine and the global fight against inflation. The report explains why we … Continue reading “Q2 Global Economic Outlook: Paying the Price of High Inflation”