The Chief Economist’s Note

Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

With concerns about the outlook for the global economy starting to build, thoughts are turning to what policymakers might do to support growth. A common refrain is that the current low level of real interest rates and high levels of public debt limit the room for conventional monetary and fiscal stimulus. That’s true but, as … Continue reading “Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate”

As the data collapse, what might we be missing?

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Annual gatherings, like those in Davos last week, tend to produce little in the way of meaningful policy shifts, but they can be a useful way of gauging the mood about the global economy. This year it was decidedly gloomy. The IMF grabbed the headlines by pulling down its forecast for global GDP growth in … Continue reading “As the data collapse, what might we be missing?”

The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were … Continue reading “The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices”

Distilling the gloomy news from Europe

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

The recent flow of both news and data from Europe has painted an increasingly gloomy picture and events this week are unlikely to provide much respite, with Italy’s government facing a deadline on Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget to Brussels and then GDP data due on Wednesday likely to show that Germany’s economy barely … Continue reading “Distilling the gloomy news from Europe”

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